Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 5, 2026

FINAL+6TEX

TEX

8-5

159

5-6-1

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

6,374 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium
MacKenzie GoreTEX
5.4± 2.6medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Carter JensenKC
2.0± 1.7high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Carter JensenKC
0.7± 0.8high
Jake BurgerTEX
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Chris PaddackTEX
3.1± 2.4low
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Noah CameronKC
2.6± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

.712

OPS

.718

.707

.320

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.07

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.20

3.95

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.83

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 15 · KC 9 (by 6)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	4	2	1	4	2	0	0	0	2	15
KC	7	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	9

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. HaggertyLF	.533	2	2	1	0	0	1	0
W. LangfordLF	.500	2	2	2	3	1	1	0
C. SeagerSS	.273	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Burger1B	.333	3	1	2	4	1	0	1
K. HigashiokaC	.273	4	1	2	3	0	0	1
J. Smith2B	.263	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Bride3B	.300	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
A. ZavalaLF	.500	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
J. HerreraC	.200	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
G. CelestinoOF	.000	0	1	0	1	0	4	0
O. MartinezOF	.200	4	1	0	0	0	0	2
C. CauleySS	.346	2	2	1	0	0	1	0
N. Pratto1B	.154	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. MitchellC	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
F. Chavez2B	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. MacIverC	.125	0	1	0	0	0	2	0
A. VelazquezSS	.150	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
R. MartinSS	.350	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Lee SangCF	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
K. JonesLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
Team		43	15	18	15	2	11	12

Player

.533

.500

.273

.333

.273

.263

.300

.500

.200

.000

.200

.346

.154

1.000

.286

.125

.150

.350

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. GoreSP	1.2	6	7	7	3	2	53
A. AndersonRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	21
C. StasioRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
M. OtanezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
R. BrasierRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
L. LopezSP	2.1	3	1	1	0	6	44
P. GrayRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	3	20
Team	9.0	10	9	9	4	15	162

Player

1.2

1.0

0.1

1.0

1.0

2.1

1.2

Team

9.0

162

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. India2B	.200	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. JensenC	.400	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
L. ThomasCF	.294	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
K. IsbelCF	.154	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
B. Drury2B	.167	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
J. Rojas3B	.375	3	1	1	2	0	0	1
D. WatersLF	.231	2	2	1	2	1	1	0
K. Newman3B	.211	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. VazquezSS	.091	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. Becker1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. RaveRF	.200	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. BrownC	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. NivensLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. MitchellC	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kulasingham1B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. GentryRF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Johnson2B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. PinedaSS	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		36	9	10	7	1	4	15

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. RagansSP	1.2	5	6	6	1	2	52
A. PérezRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	9
M. StrahmRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	13
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	5	4	4	1	1	25
A. LangeRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	2	18
E. MorganRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	23
J. CuasRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	27
M. BlackRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	17
C. MonkeRP	1.0	2	2	2	3	2	30
Team	9.0	18	15	15	11	12	214

Team

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs TEX.