Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 2, 2026

FINAL+2TEX

CLE

5-7

TEX

7-5

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

3,489 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.6± 2.4medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium

Hits

Brayan RocchioCLE
1.1± 0.9high
Chase DeLauterCLE
1.1± 0.8high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.3high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.8± 2.4high
Jake BurgerTEX
1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

Jake BurgerTEX
0.9± 1.1high
Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.8± 1.4low
Cooper IngleCLE
0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

Chris PaddackTEX
3.1± 2.4low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.8± 2.4medium
Jacob deGromTEX
2.6± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

TEX

.676

OPS

.718

▶

.712

.312

OBP

.319

▶

.320

3.93

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.07

3.77

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.95

1.26

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

CLE 1 · TEX 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
TEX	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinezLF	.385	3	1	3	1	1	0	0
C. KayfusLF	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Hoskins1B	.100	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	.313	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. HedgesC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. TolentinoSS	.222	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. ChourioCF	.385	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. LampeCF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. MooneySS	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FoxCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Collado1B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Fernandez2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. IngleC	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. HillSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. WaltonOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CaceresOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. SilvaSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	6	1	1	2	6

Player

.385

.182

.100

.313

.000

.222

.385

.250

.286

.000

.200

.000

.143

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. CecconiSP	2.2	3	2	2	1	4	52
S. MatsonSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
J. LeftwichRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17
Y. GomezSP	2.0	2	0	0	1	0	24
R. WebbSP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	26
L. McGuireRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
T. MaceSP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	19
Team	8.0	6	3	3	4	8	148

Player

2.2

0.1

1.0

2.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

148

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CarterCF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. LangfordLF	.375	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
C. SeagerSS	.222	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. PedersonDH	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Burger1B	.267	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Smith2B	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. HaggertyLF	.538	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Bride3B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. HerreraC	.125	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. TorresRF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. OsorioCF	.333	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. CauleySS	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. HardySS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. MendezRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. MacIverC	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RodriguezSS	.333	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
F. Chavez2B	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Lee SangCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Pratto1B	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JohnsonC	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		28	3	6	3	1	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. GomberSP	2.0	2	1	1	2	3	47
P. GrayRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
G. CollyerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
J. JunisRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	11
C. WinnRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
J. SborzRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	12
R. BrasierRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	9
E. LoomisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	6	1	1	2	6	121

Team

CLE

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs CLE.