Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 28, 2026

FINAL+9DET

DET

2-5-2

123

3-5

Charlotte Sports Park · Port Charlotte, Florida

6,222 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalDET
6.9± 3.1low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Jack FlahertyDET
5.7± 3.5medium

Hits

Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Yandy DiazTB
1.4± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.2± 3.7high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.9± 2.0high
Riley GreeneDET
1.9± 2.5high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.9high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.7high
Spencer TorkelsonDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium
Jack FlahertyDET
2.4± 1.6medium
Tarik SkubalDET
2.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

.713

OPS

.719

▶

.735

.315

OBP

.319

▶

.339

4.19

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.59

3.76

Team ERA

4.18

3.78

1.23

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.20

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 12 · TB 3 (by 9)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	1	2	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	12
TB	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MeadowsCF	.071	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. McGonigleSS	.462	2	2	2	0	0	1	0
M. VierlingCF	.455	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.182	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
Z. McKinstry2B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. JulksLF	.500	3	2	2	4	1	1	0
M. Anderson2B	.308	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.308	2	1	2	1	0	1	0
T. NidoC	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ClarkCF	.154	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. LiranzoC	.333	3	1	2	1	0	0	1
J. BricenoC	.167	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. MalgeriCF	.000	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
P. GrahamSS	.200	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
B. CallahanLF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PeckSS	.400	2	1	2	1	1	0	0
J. PenneySS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. ValenciaC	.300	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		45	12	17	12	2	3	5

Player

.071

.462

.455

.182

.250

.500

.308

.308

.250

.154

.333

.167

.000

.200

.500

.400

.000

.300

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. AndersonRP	3.0	4	0	0	1	3	--
K. PilkingtonRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	--
T. HoltonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
B. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
T. RaineyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. LittleRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
G. BurhennP	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	--
Team	9.0	10	3	3	2	11	0

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SimpsonLF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. DeLucaRF	.400	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Aranda1B	.385	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. ViladeRF	.143	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. FraleyRF	.286	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. WallsSS	.500	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
R. Palacios2B	.167	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. LevinsC	.167	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. JonesOF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. MateoOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. Isaac1B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. TooleOF	.500	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Kinney2B	.100	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. VellojinC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Delgado2B	.300	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. Taylor3B	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. SabolC	.333	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
Team		35	3	10	3	1	2	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. MartinezSP	3.0	6	3	3	0	1	--
I. SeymourRP	2.1	4	3	3	3	0	--
L. GuerreroRP	0.1	3	6	0	0	0	--
D. EdingtonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
G. JaxRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
B. BakerRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	--
K. KellyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	17	12	6	3	5	0

Team

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs DET.