Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 28, 2026

FINAL+3ARI

ARI

5-4

LAA

3-6

Tempe Diablo Stadium · Tempe, Arizona

7,445 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAA vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 3.8medium
Jose SorianoLAA
5.6± 1.9medium
Walbert UrenaLAA
5.0± 1.5medium

Hits

Donovan WaltonLAA
1.3± 1.0high
Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 0.7high
Nolan SchanuelLAA
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.8high
Donovan WaltonLAA
2.4± 1.7high
Zach NetoLAA
2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

Donovan WaltonLAA
0.9± 1.0high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
0.8± 1.2medium
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low
Ryan JohnsonLAA
2.9± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

LAA

.694

OPS

.718

▶

.716

.308

OBP

.319

▶

.318

4.23

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.51

4.33

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.58

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

7.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 8 · LAA 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	5	0	8
LAA	0	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ThomasCF	.429	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. BarrosaCF	.267	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. McLaughlin3B	.444	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
N. Arenado3B	.375	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. FernandezDH	.211	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Baker1B	.231	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
T. TroyLF	.471	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. GarciaC	.250	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
Ó. MercadoRF	.385	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. FrancoLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. JonesCF	.333	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. DixSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AmayaSS	.273	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
I. Melendez3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RobertsOF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Y. Soler3B	.500	1	1	1	3	1	0	0
M. O'NeillC	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. ClarkSS	1.000	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		37	8	13	8	2	2	9

Player

.429

.267

.444

.375

.211

.231

.471

.250

.385

.000

.333

.000

.273

.000

.000

.500

.500

1.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BrattSP	2.0	3	3	3	1	3	--
A. MenendezRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
H. DurkeUN	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	--
P. SewaldRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	--
B. GarciaRP	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
C. AndersonSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
P. AbnerRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	--
J. LoaisigaRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	--
G. CarrilloSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
B. JarvisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
Team	9.0	8	5	5	6	11	0

Player

2.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

0.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.385	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
M. TroutCF	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Schanuel1B	.182	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. Moncada3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. SolerDH	.429	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. AdellRF	.154	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. d'ArnaudC	.250	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
A. Frazier2B	.375	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
M. LugoLF	.091	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
D. Guzman3B	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Paris2B	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Mancini1B	.111	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Moore2B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. MecklerLF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. SiriCF	.167	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. FloresC	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Walton3B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. RodriguezCF	.444	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		35	5	8	5	1	6	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ManoahSP	3.0	4	0	0	1	1	--
D. PomeranzRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	--
K. YatesRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	3	--
J. RomanoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
T. SaucedoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
J. SandridgeRP	1.0	5	5	5	0	1	--
N. VictorRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
Team	9.0	13	8	8	2	9	0

Team

ARI

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

LAA vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs ARI.