Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 28, 2026

FINAL+2ATL

ATL

6-2

BAL

4-4-1

Ed Smith Stadium · Sarasota, Florida

7,728 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Shane BazBAL
5.3± 2.8medium

Hits

Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high
Matt OlsonATL
1.0± 1.1high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Mauricio DubonATL
1.8± 1.5high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.7± 1.8high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
0.8± 1.1high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Shane BazBAL
2.6± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

BAL

.717

OPS

.719

.714

.311

OBP

.319

▶

.318

4.73

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.56

3.43

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.43

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 7 · BAL 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	3	1	7
BAL	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Wisely2B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. DubonSS	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. WhiteRF	.400	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Keirsey Jr.CF	.222	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
K. FarmerDH	.500	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
L. WaddellSS	.375	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. TrompC	.429	3	1	2	3	1	1	0
T. EnglishOF	.182	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. AzocarRF	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. JarvisSS	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. LodiseSS	.167	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
L. EspinozaSS	.400	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. ClohisyCF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Gil3B	.200	1	2	1	1	1	0	0
C. ConleySS	1.000	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. CamargoC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Compton1B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. CareyOF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	7	12	7	3	1	13

Player

.250

.125

.400

.222

.500

.375

.429

.182

.222

.111

.167

.400

.500

.200

1.000

.000

.333

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. StriderSP	2.0	2	1	1	0	2	--
M. PerezSP	2.0	1	1	1	0	0	--
J. SuarezRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
J. GuerraRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. KarinchakRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
S. Reid-FoleyRP	0.1	2	3	3	1	1	--
R. BourassaRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	--
Team	9.0	5	5	5	2	6	0

Player

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. O'NeillRF	.636	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Alonso1B	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. WardLF	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. RutschmanC	.267	2	2	2	1	1	0	0
R. Mountcastle1B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Mayo3B	.500	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
L. TaverasCF	.364	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Jackson2B	.385	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Vasquez3B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. TrimbleLF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Noda1B	.125	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
V. HoneycuttCF	1.000	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
S. HuffC	.333	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
T. SosaCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BarreroSS	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. RobertsonLF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Estrada2B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	5	5	5	3	2	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BradishSP	3.0	4	2	2	0	5	--
R. HelsleyRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	--
T. WellsRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
Y. CanoRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	--
R. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
C. McDermottSP	1.0	4	3	3	0	1	--
J. EspadaRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	2	--
Team	9.0	12	7	6	1	13	0

Team

ATL

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs ATL.