Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 27, 2026

FINAL+2ARI

ARI

4-4

SEA

3-4-1

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

9,992 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.0%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.4± 2.6medium

Hits

Julio RodriguezSEA
1.2± 0.9high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.1± 0.9high
Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.5± 1.9high
Cole YoungSEA
1.8± 2.7high
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI
1.5± 2.0high

RBIs

Ketel MarteARI
0.8± 1.0high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

SEA

.697

OPS

.719

.697

.309

OBP

.319

▶

.313

4.27

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.09

4.30

Team ERA

4.19

▶

3.69

1.29

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

6.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 3 · SEA 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LawlarLF	.364	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
T. TawaLF	.417	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. SmithDH	.214	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. McCannC	.111	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
I. Vargas1B	.385	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
R. WaldschmidtCF	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A.J. VukovichCF	.250	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
L. Groover1B	.368	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
K. RobinsonLF	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. ConticelloOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JosephaCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TroyLF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Melendez3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. LoganC	.600	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Owusu-AsieduCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Pena2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Serretti3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Rojas2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	3	9	3	1	2	9

Player

.364

.417

.214

.111

.385

.188

.250

.368

.222

.000

.000

.500

.000

.600

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. NelsonSP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
J. RossRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. MorilloRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
L. SimsSP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. BurgosRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	--
T. RashiRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	--
D. EagenSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
Team	9.0	6	1	1	1	10	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

2.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. RoblesRF	.091	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. RefsnyderDH	.429	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.071	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. DavisCF	.545	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. Mastrobuoni3B	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Young2B	.000	3	0	0	1	0	0	2
L. Rivas3B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. PeredaC	.143	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. ThomasLF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FarmeloOF	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. MontesRF	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Cali3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RambuschOF	.111	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
Wi. Wilson3B	.545	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
B. Rodden2B	.417	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. CelestenSS	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. KniznerC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SundstromOF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	6	1	0	1	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CastilloSP	1.1	4	3	3	0	2	--
J. RuffcornRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	--
G. SpeierRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	--
C. VargasRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
J. FerrerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. SimpsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
Y. ZuluetaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
C. LawrenceRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	--
Team	9.0	9	3	3	2	9	0

Team

ARI

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs ARI.