Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 27, 2026

FINAL+5PIT

BAL

4-3-1

PIT

6-2

LECOM Park · Bradenton, Florida

4,573 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium

Hits

Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.4high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.1± 0.6high
Konnor GriffinPIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
2.5± 3.1medium
Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.0± 3.2high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.9± 1.4high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

PIT

.715

OPS

.718

▶

.757

.318

OBP

.319

▶

.337

4.58

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.18

4.38

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.17

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

BAL 1 · PIT 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BeaversRF	.100	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Alexander3B	.375	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Mountcastle1B	.222	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. RutschmanC	.154	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. CowserCF	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Ramos3B	.400	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
T. Estrada2B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. VazquezSS	.300	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Bradfield Jr.CF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. RobertsonLF	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. AustinCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. NoelRF	.429	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
We. Wilson3B	.600	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. FabianCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. WillemsC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. O'FerrallSS	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. GeorgeOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	1	8	1	0	2	12

Player

.100

.375

.222

.154

.200

.400

.000

.300

.000

.250

.000

.429

.600

.000

.000

.250

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BazSP	2.1	0	0	0	2	4	--
G. WolframRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	--
B. YoungSP	2.0	3	0	0	0	1	--
T. NeighborsSP	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	--
L. WellsP	1.1	3	4	4	2	2	--
M. AshmanRP	0.2	4	1	1	0	0	--
Team	8.0	12	6	6	6	9	0

Player

2.1

0.2

2.0

1.0

1.1

0.2

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumLF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. Lowe2B	.500	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
B. ReynoldsLF	.444	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. O'HearnRF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Gonzales3B	.538	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
En. Valdez1B	.077	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. DavisC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. GriffinSS	.182	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. FletcherRF	.091	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. De Los SantosSS	.400	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
R. Flores Jr.C	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. GarciaRF	.455	1	2	1	1	0	2	0
E. Gourson2B	.500	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
E. RodriguezC	.375	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
E. ValdezRF	.333	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
T. Johnson2B	.556	1	0	1	2	0	1	0
D. Wendzel3B	.250	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
M. JebbLF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	6	12	6	0	6	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellerSP	2.1	3	0	0	0	4	--
B. BidoisRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	--
D. SantanaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
G. SotoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. LawrenceRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	0	--
I. MattsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
M. MontgomeryRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	--
K. NicolasRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	8	1	0	2	12	0

Team

BAL

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs BAL.