Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 27, 2026

FINAL+8DET

PHI

3-4-1

816

DET

1-5-2

Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium · Lakeland, Florida

4,888 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.4± 1.1high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
3.0± 3.2high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.7± 2.8high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.4± 4.1high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
1.0± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.0± 2.0high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.1medium
Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium
Jack FlahertyDET
2.4± 1.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

DET

.704

OPS

.718

.709

.302

OBP

.319

▶

.315

4.41

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.15

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.78

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

9.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

PHI 8 · DET 16 (by 8)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	1	1	0	0	2	2	0	2	8
DET	0	0	0	3	1	11	1	0	16

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. RojasCF	.111	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. MarchanC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.500	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
D. MooreCF	.100	2	2	1	0	0	1	0
C. CairoSS	.250	3	0	2	2	0	0	1
P. LeonRF	.308	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
K. Anthony1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CampbellCF	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RickettsC	.250	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. FergusLF	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. BarkerOF	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. PintoC	.200	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
N. BiddisonRF	.000	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
T. Farquhar2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. BritoSS	1.000	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. HerediaRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Binelas1B	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. HogartRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Ware2B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		37	8	11	8	1	3	8

Player

.111

.000

.500

.100

.250

.308

.000

.143

.250

1.000

1.000

.200

.000

.000

1.000

.000

1.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CabreraSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
A. RangelRP	2.0	5	3	3	0	1	--
N. HoffmanRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	--
Y. CuretSP	0.0	2	5	5	2	0	--
A. BakerRP	0.2	5	5	5	1	0	--
T. GarnettRP	0.1	1	1	1	1	0	--
A. WallingRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	--
B. BeckelRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	8.0	17	16	16	5	4	0

Player

2.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MeadowsCF	.091	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Torres2B	.273	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
K. CarpenterRF	.167	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. Torkelson1B	.200	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. DinglerC	.500	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
W. PerezRF	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BaezSS	.571	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RogersC	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. SlaterRF	.222	1	2	0	0	0	1	1
G. Workman3B	.143	2	1	1	3	0	1	0
T. CruzCF	.333	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.182	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. BricenoC	.222	2	1	1	2	0	0	0
B. MalgeriCF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. McGonigleSS	.364	2	2	2	1	0	1	0
R. HadeenSS	.250	2	2	1	1	0	1	0
T. NidoC	.333	3	2	2	3	0	0	0
Team		40	16	17	15	1	5	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FlahertySP	2.0	1	1	1	1	4	--
R. VanascoRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	1	--
M. SeelingerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
B. SammonsRP	2.0	2	2	2	1	0	--
D. FileSP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	--
C. WaitesRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
Lockhart Jr.RP	1.0	1	2	1	1	1	--
Team	9.0	11	8	6	3	8	0

Team

PHI

DET

—

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs PHI.