Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 26, 2026

FINAL+5STL

HOU

1-3-1

STL

4-2

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

3,758 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.8± 1.8high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.6± 0.5high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

STL

.725

OPS

◀

.718

.717

.315

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.49

Runs / G

4.50

4.47

4.74

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.26

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.35

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

HOU 4 · STL 9 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	4
STL	0	0	0	1	3	0	4	1	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. MatthewsCF	.250	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
R. Unroe2B	.500	4	0	2	2	0	0	0
Z. DezenzoLF	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. SullivanCF	.111	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. PriceC	.167	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
E. FreyOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. PérezC	.400	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. JanekC	.600	1	3	1	0	0	2	0
K. StrahmRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Ferreras2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. RamirezSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Nelson3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TrammellCF	.444	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SchiavoneC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. WakefieldRF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. BushC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SierraLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. PowellSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	4	5	4	0	4	11

Player

.250

.500

.000

.111

.167

.000

.400

.600

.000

.000

.000

.000

.444

.000

.333

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. LambertSP	2.0	2	0	0	1	1	--
C. GordonSP	2.0	2	1	1	1	0	--
M. UllolaSP	1.2	2	3	3	2	1	--
A. WillinghamRP	1.1	4	4	4	0	2	--
C. RoaRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	--
Team	8.0	11	9	9	4	5	0

Player

2.0

2.0

1.2

1.1

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WinnSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
A. Burleson1B	.200	2	1	1	3	1	1	0
I. HerreraDH	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. WalkerRF	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. SaggeseLF	.286	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
Y. PozoC	.333	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
V. Scott IICF	.143	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Prieto3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. TorresLF	.333	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. RivasSS	.500	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
J. Gurevitch1B	.333	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. CrooksC	.250	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
M. KoperniakLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. PetrutzOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. YerzyC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. HoneymanLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. GazdarSS	1.000	2	2	2	1	1	0	0
R. WeingartnerSS	.500	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
Team		32	9	11	9	4	4	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LiberatoreSP	3.0	2	1	1	1	3	--
J. RomeroRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
N. RaquetRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	--
S. BlewettRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	2	--
J. ShusterRP	2.0	1	1	1	1	1	--
G. MorenoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
Team	9.0	5	4	3	4	11	0

Team

HOU

STL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs HOU.