Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 25, 2026

FINAL+2PHI

DET

0-4-1

PHI

1-3-1

BayCare Ballpark · Clearwater, Florida

5,757 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.4± 1.1high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
3.0± 3.2high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.7± 2.8high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.4± 4.1high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
1.0± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.0± 2.0high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.1medium
Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium
Jack FlahertyDET
2.4± 1.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

PHI

.709

OPS

.718

.704

.315

OBP

◀

.319

.302

4.13

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.41

3.78

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.15

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

DET 3 · PHI 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	3
PHI	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. VierlingCF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
G. Torres2B	.125	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. CarpenterRF	.111	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BaezSS	.600	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
A. SlaterRF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.286	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. ValenciaC	.167	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. NidoC	.167	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. StrongCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Jenkins1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. HadeenSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. LeeOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Workman3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. CallahanLF	1.000	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
P. GrahamSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. LeeC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	8	2	1	1	5

Player

.200

.000

.125

.111

.600

.250

.286

.167

.167

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

1.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MaddenSP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
S. EffrossRP	0.2	2	2	2	2	0	--
T. MichaelRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	--
K. PilkingtonRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	--
J. LittleRP	1.2	2	2	2	1	1	--
T. RaineyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
B. SmithRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
Team	8.0	7	5	5	3	5	0

Player

2.0

0.2

0.1

1.1

1.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. SchwarberDH	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.250	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. Harper1B	.200	2	1	1	1	0	1	1
A. Bohm3B	.750	3	0	2	2	0	0	0
A. GarciaRF	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CrawfordCF	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. KempLF	.143	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
E. Sosa2B	.375	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
P. LeonRF	.333	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
D. NoriOF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. PintoC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Anthony1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. BritoSS	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. HerediaRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SaltibanSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RinconSS	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CampbellCF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Farquhar2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	5	7	5	1	3	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. KellerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Z. PopRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
K. BackhusRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
Z. McCambleyRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	--
T. MayzaRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	--
T. RichardsRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
G. CabreraRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
G. BarbosaP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
K. BrnovichSP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	--
Team	9.0	8	3	3	1	5	0

Team

DET

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs DET.