
TEX
4-2

CLE
4-2
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.0%
ensemble · TEX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
TEX
league avg
CLE
.711
OPS
.719
.677
.320
OBP
.319
.311
4.07
Runs / G
4.50
3.97
3.99
Team ERA
4.19
▶3.77
1.24
WHIP
1.31
1.26
8.7
K / 9
8.5
▶9.3
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
TEX wins
TEX 11 · CLE 4 (by 7)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
TEX · top performer

Aaron Zavala
LF
3-2
AB-H
2
R
4
RBI
CLE · top performer

Jose Ramirez
3B
2-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 4th Inning
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .714 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .286 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .125 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .125 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .556 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .375 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .333 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .167 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .500 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .308 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .300 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| .333 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .125 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .100 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .500 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 36 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -- | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -- | |
| 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -- | |
| 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -- | |
| Team | 9.0 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .250 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .429 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| .667 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .286 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .375 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .111 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .250 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .500 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .333 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .429 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .333 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .200 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 36 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 0.1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -- | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -- | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | |
| 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -- | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -- | |
| Team | 9.0 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 0 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantTEX
CLE
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
12
Hits
10
11
Runs
4
0
Errors
0
Team stats
TEX
Away
Stat
CLE
Home
11
Runs
4
12
Hits
10
0
Errors
0
19
TB
17
2
HR
1
8
BB
6
6
K
11
19
LOB
24
Season series
TEX leads series 1-0
How it ended
TEX beat CLE 11-4. A. Zavala led the way — 2-for-3 · 2 HR · 3.333 OPS.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
CLE vs TEX
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNaylor · struck out looking.
Bride · walked, Duran scored, Canha to second, Wade to third.
R. Martin · reached on infield single to first.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Period scoring
TEX won 3 · CLE won 1
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Bride 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Zavala 3
Ram 1
Inn 7
Martin 1
Inn 8
Zavala 1
Inn 9
Cozart 1
Play-by-play · 692 plays
End of the 9th inning
TEX 11·CLE 4
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
Antunez fouled out to right.
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
Ben Anderson pitches to Wuilfredo Antunez
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
Devers struck out looking.
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
Ben Anderson pitches to Jose Devers
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
Cozart singled to right, Chourio scored, Fernandez to second.
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 3
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 3
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 3
Ben Anderson pitches to Jacob Cozart
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 4
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 3
Fernandez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Frias out at second, Chourio to third.
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 3
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 3
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 3
Ben Anderson pitches to Dauri Fernandez
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 3
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 3
Frias walked.
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 3
Pitch 6 : Ball 4
· ·
TEX 11·CLE 3
Recap · MLB
exas Rangers went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 11–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 90 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands