Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 24, 2026

FINAL+2ARI

ARI

2-3

TEX

3-2

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

3,464 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium
MacKenzie GoreTEX
5.4± 2.6medium

Hits

Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 0.7high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high
Josh JungTEX
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.8high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.3high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

Jake BurgerTEX
0.9± 1.1high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high
Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 0.7high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low
Jacob deGromTEX
2.6± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

TEX

.694

OPS

.718

▶

.712

.308

OBP

.319

▶

.320

4.23

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.07

4.33

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.95

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

7.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 6 · TEX 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	1	6
TEX	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.222	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
A. ThomasCF	.571	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
C. Santana1B	.250	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. McCannC	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Groover1B	.300	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. FernandezDH	.182	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.222	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
A.J. VukovichCF	.286	3	2	1	2	1	0	0
J. AmayaSS	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TroyLF	.444	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. JonesCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. McLaughlin3B	.600	2	0	2	2	0	0	0
M. O'NeillC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Luis2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FrancoLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Rojas2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RobinsonLF	.200	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		39	6	13	6	2	0	7

Player

.222

.571

.250

.000

.300

.182

.222

.286

.167

.444

.000

.600

.333

.000

.000

.000

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. SorokaSP	2.0	2	1	1	1	3	--
B. GarciaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
A. HoffmannRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
P. AbnerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
I. CampbellRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
T. RashiRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	--
B. JarvisRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	--
J. CurtissRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	--
Team	9.0	10	4	4	2	6	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CarterCF	.143	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
W. LangfordLF	1.000	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
C. SeagerSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Burger1B	.167	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. PedersonDH	.200	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Jung3B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Smith2B	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. HigashiokaC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. OsunaLF	.167	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. ZavalaLF	.143	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. HelmanCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. VelazquezSS	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JohnsonC	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Bride3B	.375	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. HerreraC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. MartinSS	.500	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. Taylor3B	1.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Q. ScottRF	.250	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		35	4	10	4	1	2	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LatzRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	0	--
C. BaumlerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
A. GomberSP	1.1	5	3	3	0	1	--
R. VelezP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	--
A. DiazRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
L. CurveloRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	--
P. MurphyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
W. BormieRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	--
Team	9.0	13	6	6	0	7	0

Team

ARI

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs ARI.