Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 23, 2026

FINAL+1TB

BOS

2-1

1-2

Charlotte Sports Park · Port Charlotte, Florida

4,735 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 2.9medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Anthony SeiglerBOS
1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.0± 1.5high
Yandy DiazTB
2.0± 1.1high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.8± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium
Jake BennettBOS
2.0± 2.3low
Nick MartinezTB
2.0± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

.698

OPS

.718

▶

.730

.312

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.02

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.52

3.69

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.78

1.24

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.20

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

BOS 1 · TB 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. EatonOF	.667	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. Sogard3B	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MonasterioSS	.500	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Campbell2B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. ThaissC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. NarvaezC	.400	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
B. Rodgers2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. ChengSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. WardCF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. McDonoughOF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Ferguson2B	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. RoseOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. RomeroSS	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. GasperC	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
Y. CespedesSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. CastroCF	.667	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. Capra3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. HickeyC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	1	8	1	0	0	10

Player

.667

.222

.500

.250

.000

.400

.000

.000

.333

.500

.250

.000

.500

.500

.000

.667

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. EarlySP	2.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
Z. KellyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
K. KellerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
W. OldsRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
N. SongSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
J. Wu-YellandSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
T.J. SikkemaSP	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	--
C. BickerstaffRP	0.0	2	1	1	0	0	--
Team	8.2	5	2	2	4	6	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.2

0.0

Team

8.2

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. MullinsCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Caminero3B	.400	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FraleyRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Williamson2B	.667	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
N. FortesC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. WilliamsSS	.333	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. SabolC	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
H. Bush Jr.CF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Kinney2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Davidson1B	.500	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. DeLucaRF	.500	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
G. BarriosSS	.667	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. KeeganC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. HujsakOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Delgado2B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	2	5	2	0	4	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RasmussenSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
I. SeymourRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	2	--
M. EnglertRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. ScholtensRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	3	--
T. MartinRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	--
Team	9.0	8	1	1	0	10	0

Team

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs BOS.