Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 22, 2026

FINAL+1BOS

TOR

1-1

1011

BOS

2-0

JetBlue Park at Fenway South · Fort Myers, Florida

9,258 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 2.9medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Anthony SeiglerBOS
1.2± 1.1low
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.1± 0.7high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.1± 2.5high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.9± 1.6high
Willson ContrerasBOS
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.8± 1.1high
Caleb DurbinBOS
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

BOS

.698

OPS

.718

.697

.309

OBP

.319

.311

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

3.99

4.10

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.70

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

TOR 10 · BOS 11 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	4	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	10
BOS	4	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. StrawRF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. SanchezRF	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
E. JimenezDH	.667	3	2	2	2	1	0	1
R. SchreckLF	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Jimenez3B	.250	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
B. ValenzuelaC	.000	1	1	0	1	0	1	0
A. NimmalaSS	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. Tirotta3B	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Coffey3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. MunguiaOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. MichelettiRF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. CunninghamOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. Toman3B	1.000	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
Y. PinangoLF	.200	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
R. Lantigua2B	.500	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. BrooksC	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. KasevichSS	.500	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
N. Goodwin2B	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Keys3B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. McAdoo2B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		38	10	14	10	2	5	11

Player

.333

.000

.667

.250

.250

.000

.500

.333

.000

.000

.500

.000

1.000

.200

.500

.500

.500

1.000

.250

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. PerezP	0.2	3	4	0	1	0	--
H. GregoryRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
C. LeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
L. EstradaRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	1	--
S. MilesRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
Y. RodriguezRP	0.2	5	6	6	1	1	--
D. HarrisonRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	--
C. SeaboldRP	0.2	1	1	1	2	2	--
B. CellucciRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
M. PlassmeyerRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
Team	8.0	15	11	7	6	8	0

Player

0.2

0.1

1.0

2.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnthonyLF	.143	4	2	1	1	0	0	0
T. StorySS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. DuranLF	.667	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
W. Contreras1B	.500	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
W. AbreuRF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
C. Durbin3B	.333	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
C. RafaelaCF	.250	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. RomeroSS	.500	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. ChengSS	.000	0	2	0	0	0	2	0
B. WardCF	.500	2	1	2	2	0	0	0
T. McDonoughOF	1.000	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
V. Capra3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Ferguson2B	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
N. EatonOF	1.000	3	1	3	2	0	0	0
J. DelayC	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Sogard3B	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
Team		39	11	15	11	0	6	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BelloSP	1.1	4	4	4	1	2	--
J. JuanSP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	--
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
G. WeissertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
J. MoranRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
D. SweetRP	0.2	2	3	3	2	1	--
P. LabriolaRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	--
T. GuerreroRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
R. SenaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
P. HalliganRP	0.2	4	3	3	0	1	--
J. AllmerRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	14	10	10	5	11	0

Team

TOR

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs TOR.