Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 21, 2026

FINAL+1WSH

HOU

0-1

WSH

1-0

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

2,884 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.9± 3.5high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.8± 1.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
2.7± 3.6low
Miles MikolasWSH
2.6± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

WSH

.726

OPS

.718

▶

.739

.316

OBP

.319

4.45

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.24

4.75

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.68

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.38

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

HOU 1 · WSH 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
WSH	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. ColeLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
B. MatthewsCF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. SmithRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
Z. DezenzoLF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. Whitcomb3B	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
W. BushC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
N. AllenSS	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. SalazarC	.667	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
T. SaccoSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
P. SullivanCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. StrahmRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. HuezoCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. GuillemetteC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Nelson3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Unroe2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. ThomasOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PérezC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Winkler2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	1	4	1	0	11	12

Player

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.333

.000

.333

.667

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. GordonSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
A. BlubaughRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
P. LambertSP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
T. CosgroveRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
M. UllolaSP	1.0	1	1	1	3	1	--
L. VanWeyRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	--
A. SantaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
S. CarlsonSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
Team	8.0	5	2	2	4	8	0

Player

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. AbramsSS	.500	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
D. CrewsRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. RuizC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. AdamsC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. TenaDH	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. PinckneyLF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. Ortiz1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
O. Martinez2B	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. FranklinLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. WillitsSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. VaqueroRF	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. JamesSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. MillasC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MotaSS	1.000	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
E. PetryOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Brown1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. FelizSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. PinedaRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		27	2	5	2	1	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. EderRP	2.0	2	1	0	2	2	--
R. LoveladyRP	1.0	0	0	0	3	3	--
P. PoulinRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
P. SchultzRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
S. ShumanSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. SinclairRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
S. GastonSP	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	--
H. PowellRP	1.0	0	0	0	3	1	--
Team	9.0	4	1	0	11	12	0

Team

HOU

WSH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs HOU.