Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 21, 2026

FINAL+4ATL

ATL

1-0

0-1

Charlotte Sports Park · Port Charlotte, Florida

5,354 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Bryce ElderATL
4.8± 2.9medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.0± 1.5high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Grant HolmesATL
2.1± 1.8medium
Nick MartinezTB
2.0± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

.719

OPS

.718

▶

.729

.311

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.70

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.46

3.43

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.79

1.21

WHIP

1.31

1.20

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 5 · TB 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
TB	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MateoSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	1.000	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
E. WhiteRF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. HeimC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. GamelRF	1.000	2	2	2	3	1	1	0
K. FarmerDH	.667	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
B. Wisely2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. EnglishOF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. WilliamsSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. JarvisSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Kilpatrick Jr.CF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. EspinozaSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CamargoC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. ClohisyCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. LodiseSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. WaddellSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. McCabe3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Gil3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	5	7	5	2	3	10

Player

.000

1.000

.333

.000

1.000

.667

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CarrascoRP	2.0	3	0	0	0	3	31
D. DoddRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
H. HarrisRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	24
J. KarinchakRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	11
E. HernándezRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	1	33
A. PopeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	13
S. Reid-FoleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
Team	9.0	9	1	1	1	12	139

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

139

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MeltonLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Caminero3B	.667	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
B. Williamson2B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Aranda1B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. FortesC	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. DeLucaRF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. KeeganC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. ViladeRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MalloyRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. OvernOF	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. WilliamsSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Morgan1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Davidson1B	1.000	1	1	1	1	1	1	0
K. PiperC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. OlivaresRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. VellojinC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Kinney2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	1	9	1	1	1	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. NicholsP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	11
A. WantzRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	12
K. WhitleyRP	1.0	4	3	3	0	1	22
C. BooserRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
J. RockRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	19
L. WorkmanSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	9
T. MartinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
E. ReifertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18
H. SnelsireRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	7	5	5	3	10	123

Team

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs ATL.