Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 21, 2026

FINAL+4WSH

WSH

2-0

STL

0-1

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

4,267 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Cade CavalliWSH
5.2± 3.2medium

Hits

JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Lars NootbaarSTL
1.1± 0.7high
Masyn WinnSTL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.9± 3.5high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.6± 0.5high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Miles MikolasWSH
2.6± 3.0medium
Dustin MaySTL
2.5± 2.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

STL

.739

OPS

◀

.718

.717

.319

OBP

.319

▶

.324

5.24

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.48

4.68

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.23

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.34

7.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 6 · STL 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	6
STL	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. FordC	.500	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
J. WiemerRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Mervis1B	.500	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
T. Lipscomb3B	1.000	2	0	2	1	0	1	0
P. GlasserLF	.000	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
S. AlcantaraSS	.333	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
M. Romero Jr.C	.333	3	1	1	3	1	0	2
J. RogersLF	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
S. PetersenCF	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. BarreraC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. GreenCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. Morales1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. DiazSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. MadeSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. DickersonSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. CruzSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MoroknekOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T.J. White1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	6	7	6	1	4	13

Player

.500

.000

.500

1.000

.000

.333

.333

.000

1.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OgasawaraRP	1.1	1	1	1	2	1	--
J. SimpsonP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	--
A. LaraSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
E. YeanRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	--
I. LyonSP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
E. TolmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	--
Grissom Jr.RP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
Team	9.0	3	2	2	5	11	0

Player

1.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

2.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WinnSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Burleson1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Gorman3B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Wetherholt2B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. FerminLF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchLF	.500	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
Jo. BáezRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Jordan3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. BernalC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. TarlowC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Mendoza2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RivasSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Moore2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. KoperniakLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. HarrisSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. LevensonOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. AnticoCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. MadrisOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	2	3	1	1	5	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LiberatoreSP	2.0	2	0	0	0	4	--
Q. MathewsSP	1.2	2	2	2	2	2	--
T. BradtRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	--
R. FernandezRP	0.2	2	4	4	2	1	--
D. CarpenterRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
L. GastelumRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
P. NaughtonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
S. HalesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
A. LoveSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	7	6	6	4	13	0

Team

WSH

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs WSH.