Miami Marlins vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 21, 2026

FINAL+1MIA

MIA

1-0

NYM

0-1

Clover Park · Port St. Lucie, Florida

6,293 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.5± 3.3low

Hits

Liam HicksMIA
1.3± 0.7high
Otto LopezMIA
1.3± 0.8high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.2± 2.1high
Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
Liam HicksMIA
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Liam HicksMIA
0.7± 0.7high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.3high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 2.9medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

NYM

.716

OPS

◀

.718

.671

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.298

4.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.95

3.98

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.06

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.27

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 2 · NYM 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	2
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarseeCF	.500	2	2	1	0	0	1	0
A. RamirezC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Morel1B	.000	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
G. ConineLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Norby1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. HernandezLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Sanoja3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. AcostaSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. IgnoffoC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. BastidasSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Martorella1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ShadeOF	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. Lewis2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. JohnsonCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. EtzelLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. NavarretoC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Jasso1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Beshears1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	2	2	1	0	3	9

Player

.500

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

1.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. SnellingSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
R. GustoSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18
T. PhillipsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
C. GibsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15
Z. BrzykcyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
J. RalstonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
J. EknessRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
N. BelgraveRP	1.0	0	1	1	2	1	26
S. JonesRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	10
Team	9.0	2	1	1	3	9	139

Player

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

139

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Semien2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SotoLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. BichetteSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TaylorCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. MauricioSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. MelendezDH	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. BarnesC	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Rojas3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SueroC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. YoungSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
A.J. EwingCF	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	1
E. Serrano IIIRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. VillavicencioSS	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. RamosCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. ParadaC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. HernándezSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Lorusso3B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
T. SnyderSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	1	2	1	0	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. WaddellRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	18
C. Edwards Jr.RP	2.0	1	1	0	1	2	34
H. BrazobanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
J. JacquesRP	1.0	0	1	1	1	0	16
A. WarrenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
B. SimonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	15
A. RozekRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
Team	9.0	2	2	1	3	9	119

Team

MIA

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs MIA.