Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 21, 2026

FINAL+2CLE

CIN

0-1

CLE

1-0

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

5,669 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.6± 2.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.2± 2.4medium

Hits

Brayan RocchioCLE
1.1± 0.9high
Chase DeLauterCLE
1.1± 0.8high
Edwin ArroyoCIN
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Sal StewartCIN
1.8± 1.8high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.6± 3.1high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.4± 1.4high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high
Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.8± 1.4low
Cooper IngleCLE
0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
2.9± 3.0low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 2.0medium
Rhett LowderCIN
2.8± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

CLE

.700

OPS

◀

.718

.675

.310

OBP

.319

.311

4.21

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

4.63

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.77

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CIN 2 · CLE 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
CLE	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. StephensonC	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. SuarezDH	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. BensonRF	.333	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
S. Stewart1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
N. MarteRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. LoweDH	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MyersCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Toglia1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. Arroyo2B	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
W. BanfieldC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. TrautweinC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Collier3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. RodriguezLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. CallihanLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. HindsRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P.J. HigginsC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. DunnCF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Chavis2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. Hampson2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		30	2	4	2	1	5	10

Player

.333

.000

.333

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.500

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.500

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BurnsSP	2.0	0	0	0	3	2	--
R. LowderSP	2.0	2	1	1	1	4	--
J. AguiarSP	2.0	2	1	1	1	2	--
H. DannerRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	--
D. McCaughanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
Team	8.0	6	4	4	7	11	0

Player

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MartinezLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Ramirez3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. NaylorC	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
G. AriasSS	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. FryRF	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. KayfusLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. RodriguezRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Brito2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. FairchildRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. WatsonRF	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. Kieboom3B	.500	2	0	1	2	0	0	1
D. NunezC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. TolentinoSS	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. BarstadC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Velazquez1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LampeCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. MooneySS	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		29	4	6	4	0	7	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. AllenRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	--
C. HoldermanRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	--
D. NikhazySP	2.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
T. BurnsSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
S. PerezP	0.2	1	0	0	2	1	--
C. SchuelkeRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. JasiakRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
H. StanleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	4	2	2	5	10	0

Team

CIN

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs CIN.