Athletics vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 21, 2026

FINAL+9CHW

ATH

0-1

211

CHW

2-0

Camelback Ranch - Glendale · Phoenix, Arizona

3,420 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
6.0± 1.6medium
Gage JumpATH
5.7± 2.5low
Davis MartinCHW
5.7± 3.0medium

Hits

Sam AntonacciCHW
1.2± 0.9high
Alika WilliamsATH
1.1± 1.0high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Miguel VargasCHW
2.2± 2.5high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.7± 1.6high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
1.6± 1.7medium

RBIs

Kyle TeelCHW
1.0± 1.7low
Jacob GonzalezCHW
0.8± 1.7high
Nick KurtzATH
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.5± 2.0medium
Aaron CivaleATH
2.9± 3.3low
Sean BurkeCHW
2.5± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

CHW

.736

OPS

.718

▶

.744

.327

OBP

.319

.325

4.60

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.87

4.97

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.21

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.33

8.5

K / 9

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

ATH 2 · CHW 11 (by 9)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
CHW	2	1	2	0	0	2	1	3	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. ClarkeCF	.000	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. ThomasRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. WynnsC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. HernaizSS	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Harris3B	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. PerezCF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. BolteCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Stefanic2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. WallachC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MarloweOF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
T. White3B	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
E. Angeles3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ServenC	1.000	3	0	3	1	0	0	0
L. De VriesSS	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. LavastidaC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Kuroda-GrauerSS	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. LaskoCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. ElliottLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		37	2	11	1	0	4	8

Player

.000

.000

.500

.000

.500

1.000

.500

.000

.000

.000

.333

1.000

.000

1.000

.333

.000

.500

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PerkinsRP	0.2	2	2	2	2	1	--
C. ZhuangRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	--
W. LinP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	--
E. NunezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
N. AndersonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
G. HartliebRP	0.1	1	2	1	2	1	--
M. KrookRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. GossSP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	--
A. CauseySP	1.0	4	3	3	0	0	--
Team	8.0	14	11	10	5	7	0

Player

0.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Meidroth2B	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. BenintendiDH	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Vargas3B	.500	2	2	1	0	0	1	1
C. MontgomerySS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
L. AcunaCF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
E. QueroC	1.000	3	0	3	4	0	0	0
L. Wade Jr.1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. BaldwinLF	.500	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. KelenicRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. BonemerSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. TurnerC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Camilletti2B	1.000	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
W. Bergolla Jr.2B	1.000	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
J. BreauxC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BurkeCF	.000	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
C. ConnorOF	.250	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
Dru BakerCF	.667	3	2	2	1	0	0	0
J. Gonzalez1B	.500	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
Team		39	11	14	11	1	5	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. MurphyRP	2.0	3	1	1	1	1	--
J. HicksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
W. GonzálezRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
D. DavittRP	2.0	2	1	0	2	1	--
A. AlbertoRP	1.0	3	0	0	0	1	--
A. CoffeyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
C. PlymellRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	11	2	1	4	8	0

Team

ATH

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CHW vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs ATH.