Texas Rangers vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 21, 2026

FINAL+1TEX

TEX

1-1

CHC

0-2

Sloan Park · Mesa, Arizona

12,073 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium
Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.2± 1.1high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 2.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.0± 1.8high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.2± 2.5high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.3± 3.2medium
Colin ReaCHC
2.8± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

CHC

.711

OPS

.718

▶

.740

.319

OBP

.319

▶

.337

4.07

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.90

3.93

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.23

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.25

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 3 · CHC 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	3
CHC	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. HaggertyLF	1.000	3	0	3	3	0	0	0
E. DuranSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. JansenC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Foscue2B	.500	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. Bride3B	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. CanhaLF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. JohnsonC	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Wade2B	.667	2	2	2	0	0	0	0
A. ZavalaLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. Lee SangCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Q. ScottRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. HerreraC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. VelazquezSS	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Pratto1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CauleySS	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. MartinSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
O. MartinezOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		37	3	10	3	0	2	15

Player

1.000

.000

.000

.500

.250

.500

.000

.667

.000

.000

.000

.000

.250

.000

.250

.333

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. RockerSP	2.0	2	1	1	1	2	--
C. QuantrillRP	1.1	4	1	1	2	0	--
C. StasioRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	--
L. CurveloRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
C. BaumlerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
P. MurphyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
B. AndersonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	--
W. BormieRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
Team	9.0	9	2	2	3	7	0

Player

2.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ShawRF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. KellyC	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Long1B	.400	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. DeanCF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Triantos2B	.250	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
P. Ramirez2B	.500	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. RojasSS	.500	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
B.J. Murray Jr.3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. OpitzC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. GarriolaLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. Miller2B	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. Cantrelle2B	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. Ortiz3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Le. EspinozaCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Simas3B	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. BatemanCF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. ArmasC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	2	9	2	0	3	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoydSP	1.2	5	1	1	0	4	--
R. JensenSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
D. PalenciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
H. MilnerRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	2	--
L. LittleRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
J. NeelyRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	--
J. BrighamRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
E. TaylorRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
C. BarnesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
Team	9.0	10	3	3	2	15	0

Team

TEX

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs TEX.