Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 21, 2026

FINAL+6PIT

PIT

1-0

BAL

1-1

Ed Smith Stadium · Sarasota, Florida

6,934 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.0%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium

Hits

Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
1.1± 1.2medium
Konnor GriffinPIT
1.1± 0.9high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.1± 1.4high

Total bases

Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
2.6± 2.9medium
Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.0± 3.2high
Brandon LowePIT
1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.9± 1.4high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

BAL

.754

OPS

◀

.719

.716

.336

OBP

◀

.319

5.06

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.58

4.28

Team ERA

◀

4.19

4.39

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.37

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 8 · BAL 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	2	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	8
BAL	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. CruzCF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. Gonzales3B	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
R. O'HearnRF	.333	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
J. BartC	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. TrioloSS	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
En. Valdez1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. Yorke3B	.000	2	1	0	1	0	1	0
E. RodriguezC	.333	3	1	1	3	1	0	1
B. CookRF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. GriffinSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. GarciaRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. ValdezRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Wendzel3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. Johnson2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. AlfonzoC	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Cimillo1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Gourson2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. JebbLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	8	5	7	2	6	12

Player

.333

.000

.333

.000

.000

.000

.000

.333

.333

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

1.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. DotelRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	1	--
N. MurdockSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
M. Darrell-HicksRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
M. AgerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
J. BaylessRP	2.0	1	1	0	2	2	--
J. MeisSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
C. NielsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
Team	9.0	4	2	1	3	7	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WardLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
A. RutschmanC	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Mountcastle1B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Alexander3B	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. HendersonSS	.400	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. BeaversRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. TaverasCF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
We. Wilson3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
L. VazquezSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. GeorgeOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. O'FerrallSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Noda1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. NoelRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. AndersonC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. Vasquez3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FabianCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. HandleyC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. AustinCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	2	4	0	0	3	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KremerSP	2.0	0	2	2	3	1	--
T. WellsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
Y. CanoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
D. EnnsRP	0.1	4	6	6	2	0	--
R. GuaschSP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	--
Y. HiraldoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
C. McDermottSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
L. WellsP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
Team	9.0	5	8	8	6	12	0

Team

PIT

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs PIT.