Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 21, 2026

FINAL+5COL

COL

1-1

116

ARI

1-1

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

10,185 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.3± 2.0medium
Eduardo RodriguezARI
4.2± 1.8medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
4.0± 2.1medium

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.4± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.4± 0.5high
Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.5± 2.2high
Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.8high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.3± 4.0high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.7high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high
Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 0.7high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

ARI

.742

OPS

◀

.718

.694

.325

OBP

◀

.319

.308

4.59

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.23

5.53

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.33

1.52

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

COL 11 · ARI 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	5	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	11
ARI	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	2	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DoyleCF	1.000	3	1	3	3	0	0	0
E. TovarSS	.500	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
H. GoodmanC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
W. Castro2B	.500	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
B. Crim1B	.000	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
T. JohnstonRF	.000	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. CondonOF	.667	3	2	2	0	0	1	1
A. Amador2B	.250	4	2	1	1	1	0	2
R. Ritter2B	.500	2	2	2	2	0	1	0
D. AvansLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. CarriggCF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. McCannC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
V. MachinSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. Kokoska1B	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. ThompsonRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. HillRF	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. BetancourtC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Stevens2B	.333	1	0	1	2	0	1	0
Team		39	11	13	10	1	8	13

Player

1.000

.500

.000

.500

.000

.000

.667

.250

.500

.000

.200

.000

.000

1.000

.000

1.000

.000

.333

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GordonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
V. BellozoRP	2.0	1	1	1	1	2	--
J. HillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
G. HughesSP	2.0	1	1	0	0	2	--
C. PalmquistSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
T. ShookSP	1.0	2	2	0	0	1	--
C. SkipperRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	--
Team	9.0	7	6	3	3	11	0

Player

1.0

2.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. Vargas1B	.000	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
T. TawaLF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
P. SmithDH	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Baker1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. McCannC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LawlarLF	.500	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
L. Groover1B	.250	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. JonesCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ó. MercadoRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FernandezDH	.000	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
T. TroyLF	.750	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
B. McLaughlin3B	.333	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
C. RobertsOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. LoganC	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. JosephaCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Luis2B	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
A.J. VukovichCF	.333	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. RobinsonLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	6	7	5	1	3	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BrattSP	1.1	3	3	2	1	1	--
Z. RussellRP	0.0	2	2	2	2	0	--
C. AndersonSP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	--
A. MorilloRP	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	--
Y. LinSP	1.2	2	2	2	2	2	--
T. MendezRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
H. DurkeUN	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	--
I. DiazRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
S. GiestingSP	1.0	3	2	2	0	2	--
Team	9.0	13	11	10	8	13	0

Team

COL

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs COL.