Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 20, 2026

FINAL+4KC

1-0

TEX

0-1

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

5,113 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium
MacKenzie GoreTEX
5.4± 2.6medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Carter JensenKC
2.0± 1.7high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Jake BurgerTEX
0.9± 1.1high
Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Carter JensenKC
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Noah CameronKC
2.6± 2.0medium
Jacob deGromTEX
2.6± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

TEX

.707

OPS

.718

.711

.315

OBP

.319

▶

.319

4.20

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.07

4.88

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.93

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.23

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 7 · TEX 3 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	3	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	7
TEX	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Garcia3B	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Witt Jr.SS	.333	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. PerezC	.667	3	2	2	2	1	0	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. ThomasCF	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. Massey2B	.667	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
N. Loftin2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Newman3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Toro1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. RamírezC	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. SquiresOF	1.000	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
O. HernandezC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. CrossRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. WatersLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Wilson2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. MisnerCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. Tolbert2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		35	7	9	7	2	3	7

Player

.333

.333

.000

.667

.333

.500

.667

.000

.000

.000

.000

1.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KolekSP	2.0	3	1	1	1	2	--
J. CuasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
E. CerantolaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
H. OlivarezSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
S. PanziniSP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	--
H. PattesonSP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	--
B. WayRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	--
B. SearsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
Team	9.0	7	3	3	4	7	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CarterCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SeagerSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. PedersonDH	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Burger1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Smith2B	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. HigashiokaC	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. OsunaLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. HelmanCF	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. Foscue2B	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. DuranSS	.000	0	1	0	0	0	2	0
C. CauleySS	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Bride3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Wade2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
W. MacIverC	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. MartinSS	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. ZavalaLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. VelazquezSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	3	7	3	0	4	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. EovaldiSP	2.0	3	3	3	0	3	--
R. GarciaRP	0.1	2	3	2	0	0	--
A. AndersonRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	--
C. WinnRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
T. SupakSP	2.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
G. CollyerRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	--
P. GrayRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
M. ThompsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	--
Team	9.0	9	7	6	3	7	0

Team

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs KC.