Matchup orbital
8
CHC
CHC
18-12
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME
3
SD
SD
19-10
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
CHC wins
CHC 8 · SD 3 (by 5)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked SD +2pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| SD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
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CHC18-12
CHC
19-10SD
SD
Recap · MLB
hicago Cubs went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 8–3.
CHC -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Current series
CHC win series 2-1
CHC7@SD9CHC8@SD3todayCHC5@SD4Season series
Series tied 1-1
CHC7@SD9CHC8@SD3todayCHC5@SD4SD@CHCupcomingSD@CHCupcomingSD@CHCupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CHC -1.5
Total
8.5
Standard · 0.0 vs avg
Moneyline
CHC-11854%SD-10250%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 2 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 27pp · Top 6th Inning
CHC
D. Swanson
SSBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS
E. Cabrera
SPStarting pitcher
5.2 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB
SD
X. Bogaerts
SSBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS
W. Buehler
SPStarting pitcher
4.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB
How it ended
CHC beat SD 8-3. Hoerner's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
SD vs CHC
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSwanson · doubled to center, Busch scored and Happ scored.
Hoerner · doubled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored and Lopez scored.
Crow-Armstrong · homered to center (410 feet), Kelly scored and Bregman scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| SD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Period scoring
CHC won 3 · SD won 1
Inn 1
Inn 2
Swanson 2
Bogaerts 1
Inn 3
Inn 4
France 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Hoerner 2
Campusano 1
Inn 7
Crow-Armstrong 3
Inn 8
Inn 9
Game flow · key plays
- T7
Crow-Armstrong homered to center (410 feet), Kelly scored and Bregman scored.
CHC 8·SD 3
−16pp
- T7
Bregman singled to right, Suzuki scored, Kelly to second.
CHC 5·SD 3
−13pp
- B6
Campusano singled to left, France scored, Sheets to third.
CHC 4·SD 3
+14pp
- T6
Hoerner doubled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored and Lopez scored.
CHC 4·SD 2
−27pp
- B4
France singled to center, Bogaerts scored.
CHC 2·SD 2
+14pp
- T2
Swanson doubled to center, Busch scored and Happ scored.
CHC 2·SD 0
−17pp
Team stats
CHC
Away
Stat
SD
Home
8
Hits
6
0
Errors
1
8
Runs
3
Player box score
CHC
18-12
N. Hoerner★
2B
OPS
0.400
H-AB
1-5
R
0
RBI
2
HR
0
M. Ballesteros★
C
OPS
0.200
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
S. Suzuki★
RF
OPS
1.100
H-AB
2-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
I. Happ★
LF
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
M. Busch★
1B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
0-2
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
C. Kelly★
C
OPS
0.400
H-AB
1-5
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
D. Swanson★
SS
OPS
2.000
H-AB
1-1
R
0
RBI
2
HR
0
P. Crow-Armstrong★
CF
OPS
1.400
H-AB
1-4
R
2
RBI
3
HR
1
M. Shaw★
RF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
N. Lopez
3B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-2
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
A. Bregman
3B
OPS
2.000
H-AB
2-2
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0
H-AB
8-36
R
8
RBI
8
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N. Hoerner★2B | 1-5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.400 |
M. Ballesteros★C | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 |
S. Suzuki★RF | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.100 |
I. Happ★LF | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
M. Busch★1B | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
C. Kelly★C | 1-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
D. Swanson★SS | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2.000 |
P. Crow-Armstrong★CF | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1.400 |
M. Shaw★RF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
N. Lopez3B | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
A. Bregman3B | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.000 |
| Team | 8-36 | 8 | 8 | 1 | — |
E. Cabrera★
SP
IP
5.2
H
6
ER
3
K
7
H. Milner
RP
IP
1.1
H
0
ER
0
K
1
R. Rolison
RP
IP
2.0
H
0
ER
0
K
2
IP
9.0
H
6
ER
3
K
10
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
E. Cabrera★SP | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
H. MilnerRP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
R. RolisonRP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 3 | 10 |
SD
19-10
R. Laureano★
LF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
F. Tatis Jr.★
RF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Merrill★
CF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
X. Bogaerts★
SS
OPS
1.833
H-AB
1-3
R
2
RBI
1
HR
1
T. France★
1B
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0
G. Sheets★
1B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
L. Campusano★
C
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
B. Johnson★
RF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Cronenworth★
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
N. Castellanos
RF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
6-33
R
3
RBI
3
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R. Laureano★LF | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
F. Tatis Jr.★RF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
J. Merrill★CF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
X. Bogaerts★SS | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.833 |
T. France★1B | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
G. Sheets★1B | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
L. Campusano★C | 1-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
B. Johnson★RF | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
J. Cronenworth★2B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
N. CastellanosRF | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 6-33 | 3 | 3 | 1 | — |
W. Buehler★
SP
IP
4.2
H
3
ER
2
K
4
K. Hart
RP
IP
0.2
H
1
ER
2
K
1
D. Morgan
RP
IP
0.2
H
1
ER
1
K
1
W. Peralta
RP
IP
1.0
H
2
ER
3
K
0
R. Marinaccio
RP
IP
2.0
H
1
ER
0
K
1
IP
9.0
H
8
ER
8
K
7
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
W. Buehler★SP | 4.2 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
K. HartRP | 0.2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
D. MorganRP | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
W. PeraltaRP | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
R. MarinaccioRP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
Betting line
CHC -1.5·O/U 8.5·CHC -118/SD -102