Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at SD?

The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 28, 2026

FINAL+5CHC

CHC

18-12

19-10

Petco Park · San Diego, California

40,106 attended

Line movement

70 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

SD no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.5%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
52.3%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.8%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.4%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at SD?: The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

SD vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shota ImanagaCHC
5.4± 2.8medium
Edward CabreraCHC
4.8± 2.8low
Griffin CanningSD
4.6± 2.4low

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.1high
Samad TaylorSD
1.3± 1.3low
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.4± 2.5high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.6high
Manny MachadoSD
2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.8± 1.3high
Carson KellyCHC
0.7± 1.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Edward CabreraCHC
3.4± 2.6low
Griffin CanningSD
3.4± 3.2low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.1± 3.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

.738

OPS

◀

.718

.656

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.293

4.75

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.86

4.28

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.85

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 8 · SD 3 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	8
SD	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Hoerner2B	.293	5	0	1	2	0	0	0
M. BallesterosDH	.364	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. SuzukiRF	.328	4	1	2	0	0	1	1
I. HappLF	.229	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. Busch1B	.200	2	1	0	0	0	2	2
C. KellyC	.307	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. SwansonSS	.214	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.241	4	2	1	3	1	1	2
M. ShawRF	.275	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Lopez2B	.000	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. Bregman3B	.256	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
Team		36	8	8	8	1	6	7

Player

.293

.364

.328

.229

.200

.307

.214

.241

.275

.000

.256

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CabreraSP	5.2	6	3	3	1	7	99
H. MilnerRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	22
R. RolisonRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	22
Team	9.0	6	3	3	1	10	143

Player

E. CabreraSP

5.2

H. MilnerRP

1.1

R. RolisonRP

2.0

Team

9.0

143

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LaureanoLF	.255	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MerrillCF	.205	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. BogaertsSS	.286	3	2	1	1	1	1	2
T. France1B	.317	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.233	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. CampusanoC	.341	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
B. JohnsonRF	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Cronenworth2B	.149	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. CastellanosRF	.151	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	6	3	1	1	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BuehlerSP	4.2	3	2	2	3	4	92
K. HartRP	0.2	1	2	2	1	1	14
D. MorganRP	0.2	1	1	1	1	1	20
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	2	3	3	0	0	26
R. MarinaccioRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	1	30
Team	9.0	8	8	8	6	7	182

Team

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

SD vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.