Matchup orbital

CHC

7

CHC

CHC

17-12

Final

Win prob

46/54

AWAY · HOME

SD

9

SD

SD

19-9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

CHC 7 · SD 9 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0140000027
SD301020219

What's next

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MLBGame · Mon, Apr 27Final
CHC

CHC17-12

CHC

@

19-9SD

SD

SD
SeriesCHC win series 2-1VegasSD -120

Recap · MLB

an Diego Padres held off Chicago Cubs, 9–7.

SD +1.5 cashed (CHC lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FINALFinal
CHC
CHC17-127
FINAL
SD
SDWIN19-99

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Apr 28CHCCHC7@SDSD9today
Apr 29CHCCHC8@SDSD3
Apr 29CHCCHC5@SDSD4

Season series

SD leads series 1-0

Apr 28CHCCHC7@SDSD9today
Apr 29CHCCHC8@SDSD3
Apr 29CHCCHC5@SDSD4
Jun 30SDSD@CHCCHCupcoming
Jul 1SDSD@CHCCHCupcoming
Jul 1SDSD@CHCCHCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC+10050%
SDSD-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement

1 snapshot on file

Movement tracking online — chart appears once we have two or more snapshots logged for this game. Keep this tab open and refresh after the next ingest cycle.

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 39pp · Top 3rd Inning

CHCCHC
S. Suzuki

S. Suzuki

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

M. Boyd

M. Boyd

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

SDSD
G. Sheets

G. Sheets

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

R. Vasquez

R. Vasquez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SD beat CHC 9-7. Ballesteros's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (39pp).

Win probability

SD vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Score progression

2 lead changes

CHC7
SD9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+15pp→ 83% WP

France · hit a ground rule double, Merrill scored and Machado scored, Andujar to third.

CHCTop 3rd Inning · 5-3
+39pp→ 68% WP

Ballesteros · homered to right (404 feet), Bregman scored, Happ scored and Suzuki scored.

SDBottom 5th Inning · 5-6
+31pp→ 73% WP

Castellanos · singled to center, Machado scored and France scored, Castellanos to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0140000027
SD30102021—9

Period scoring

CHC won 2 · SD won 4

0
3

Inn 1

France 2

1
0

Inn 2

Suzuki 1

4
1

Inn 3

Ballesteros 4

Andujar 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Castellanos 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

France 2

0
1

Inn 8

Sheets 1

2

Inn 9

Hoerner 1

CHC
SD

Game flow · key plays

  1. T9

    Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Swanson to second, Shaw to third.

    CHC 5·SD 9

    −10pp

  2. B7

    France tripled to left, Bogaerts scored and Andujar scored.

    CHC 5·SD 8

    +10pp

  3. T7

    Busch struck out looking.

    CHC 5·SD 6

    +11pp

  4. B5

    Castellanos singled to center, Machado scored and France scored, Castellanos to second.

    CHC 5·SD 6

    +31pp

  5. T3

    Ballesteros homered to right (404 feet), Bregman scored, Happ scored and Suzuki scored.

    CHC 5·SD 3

    −39pp

  6. B1

    France hit a ground rule double, Merrill scored and Machado scored, Andujar to third.

    CHC 0·SD 3

    +15pp

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

SD

Home

8

Hits

14

0

Errors

0

7

Runs

9

Player box score

CHC

CHC

17-12

7
N. Hoerner

N. Hoerner★

2B

OPS

0.200

H-AB

0-4

R

0

RBI

1

HR

0

M. Busch

M. Busch★

1B

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-5

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

A. Bregman

A. Bregman★

3B

OPS

0.200

H-AB

0-4

R

1

RBI

0

HR

0

I. Happ

I. Happ★

LF

OPS

0.500

H-AB

1-4

R

1

RBI

0

HR

0

S. Suzuki

S. Suzuki★

RF

OPS

1.750

H-AB

2-4

R

2

RBI

1

HR

1

M. Ballesteros

M. Ballesteros★

C

OPS

1.250

H-AB

1-4

R

1

RBI

4

HR

1

M. Conforto

M. Conforto★

RF

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-2

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

D. Swanson

D. Swanson★

SS

OPS

1.417

H-AB

2-3

R

1

RBI

0

HR

0

P. Crow-Armstrong

P. Crow-Armstrong★

CF

OPS

0.833

H-AB

1-3

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

M. Shaw

M. Shaw

RF

OPS

1.000

H-AB

1-2

R

1

RBI

0

HR

0

Team total

H-AB

8-35

R

7

RBI

6

HR

2

M. Boyd

M. Boyd★

SP

IP

4.0

H

8

ER

5

K

4

B. Brown

B. Brown

RP

IP

2.0

H

2

ER

0

K

1

P. Maton

P. Maton

RP

IP

1.0

H

3

ER

2

K

2

J. Webb

J. Webb

RP

IP

1.0

H

1

ER

1

K

1

Team total

IP

8.0

H

14

ER

8

K

8

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 7.5·CHC +100/SD -120

DraftKings · via ESPN