Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at MIN?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 27, 2026

FINAL+7MIN

SEA

14-16

411

MIN

13-16

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

14,160 attended

Line movement

46 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

MIN no-vig %

47.4%

open 47.4%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
44.8%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.8%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.5%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at MIN?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

MIN vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.4± 2.9medium
Logan GilbertSEA
6.4± 2.4medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 3.6medium

Hits

Byron BuxtonMIN
1.4± 1.0high
Trevor LarnachMIN
1.2± 1.4high
Alex JacksonMIN
1.1± 1.5low

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
3.0± 2.3high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.0± 2.5high
Josh BellMIN
1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

Byron BuxtonMIN
0.8± 1.2high
Josh BellMIN
0.8± 0.9high
Kody ClemensMIN
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.0± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

MIN

.700

OPS

.718

▶

.731

.313

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.13

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.86

3.62

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.75

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

SEA 4 · MIN 11 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	4
MIN	0	1	4	2	0	1	0	3	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. RefsnyderDH	.135	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. RaleighC	.205	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
J. RodriguezCF	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.202	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.287	3	1	2	0	0	1	1
J.P. CrawfordSS	.178	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. GarverC	.219	2	0	1	1	0	2	0
C. Young2B	.260	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
L. Rivas3B	.155	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		29	4	5	4	1	5	7

Player

.135

.205

.241

.202

.287

.178

.219

.260

.155

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CastilloSP	5.0	7	7	7	2	3	97
C. WilcoxRP	1.1	3	1	1	2	1	40
A. HoppeRP	1.2	2	3	3	3	3	42
Team	8.0	12	11	11	7	7	179

Player

L. CastilloSP

5.0

C. WilcoxRP

1.1

A. HoppeRP

1.2

Team

8.0

179

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.229	4	1	1	2	1	1	1
B. LeeSS	.242	4	1	0	0	0	1	0
T. LarnachLF	.259	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
J. BellDH	.235	4	2	1	0	0	1	0
R. JeffersC	.282	4	2	2	2	0	1	0
K. Clemens1B	.194	5	1	2	5	1	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.218	4	0	2	1	0	1	1
M. WallnerRF	.172	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. GraySS	.292	3	2	2	0	0	1	1
J. OutmanCF	.115	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	11	12	11	2	7	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PrielippSP	5.0	1	2	2	3	5	84
A. MorrisRP	3.0	4	2	2	1	2	40
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	14
Team	9.0	5	4	4	5	7	138

Team

SEA

MIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

MIN vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.