Matchup orbital

4
STL
STL
15-13
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME

2
PIT
PIT
16-13
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
STL wins
STL 4 · PIT 2 (by 2)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked PIT +6pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
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STL15-13
STL
16-13PIT
PIT

Recap · MLB
t. Louis Cardinals went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 4–2.
STL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 2.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page


Current series
STL wins series 4-0
STL4@
PIT2today
STL11@
PIT7
STL5@
PIT4
STL10@
PIT5Season series
STL leads series 1-0
STL4@
PIT2today
STL11@
PIT7
STL5@
PIT4
STL10@
PIT5
PIT@
STLupcoming
PIT@
STLupcoming
PIT@
STLupcoming
PIT@
STLupcoming
PIT@
STLupcoming
PIT@
STLupcoming
STL@
PITupcoming
STL@
PITupcoming
STL@
PITupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
STL -1.5
Total
8.0
Defensive · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
STL-10250%
PIT-11854%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 2 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 34pp · Top 9th Inning
STL
J. Fermin
LFBatter of the gamePerfect day
2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

D. May
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 2 BB
PIT
N. Gonzales
3BBatter of the game
3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

W. Dotel
RPTop reliever
4.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER
How it ended
STL beat PIT 4-2. Wetherholt's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
PIT vs STL
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWinn · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Fermín out at second.
Wetherholt · homered to right center (408 feet).
Ferm · ín doubled to left, Scott II scored and Burleson scored, Walker to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Period scoring
STL won 1 · PIT won 2
Inn 1
O'Hearn 1
Inn 2
Mangum 1
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Ferm 2
Game flow · key plays
Fermín doubled to left, Scott II scored and Burleson scored, Walker to third.
STL 4·PIT 2
−27pp
Walker walked, Burleson to second, Scott II to third.
STL 2·PIT 2
−13pp
Herrera walked.
STL 2·PIT 2
−8pp
Wetherholt homered to right center (408 feet).
STL 2·PIT 2
−34pp
Winn grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Fermín out at second.
STL 0·PIT 2
+11pp
O'Hearn singled to right, Lowe scored.
STL 0·PIT 1
+8pp
Team stats
STL
Away
Stat
PIT
Home
6
Hits
8
0
Errors
0
4
Runs
2
Player box score

STL
15-13

J. Wetherholt★
2B
OPS
1.250
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1

I. Herrera★
C
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

A. Burleson★
1B
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0

J. Walker★
RF
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

N. Gorman★
3B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

M. Winn★
SS
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

N. Church★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

T. Saggese★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

P. Pages★
C
OPS
1.667
H-AB
1-3
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1

J. Fermin
LF
OPS
2.000
H-AB
2-2
R
0
RBI
2
HR
0
H-AB
6-32
R
4
RBI
4
HR
2
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() J. Wetherholt★2B | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.250 |
![]() I. Herrera★C | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
![]() A. Burleson★1B | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
![]() J. Walker★RF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
![]() N. Gorman★3B | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() M. Winn★SS | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() N. Church★LF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() T. Saggese★LF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() P. Pages★C | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.667 |
![]() J. FerminLF | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2.000 |
| Team | 6-32 | 4 | 4 | 2 | — |

D. May★
SP
IP
6.0
H
7
ER
2
K
2

R. Fernandez
RP
IP
2.0
H
0
ER
0
K
4

G. Soriano
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
1
IP
9.0
H
8
ER
2
K
7
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() D. May★SP | 6.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
![]() R. FernandezRP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
![]() G. SorianoRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |

PIT
16-13

S. Horwitz★
1B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

B. Lowe★
2B
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0

B. Reynolds★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

R. O'Hearn★
RF
OPS
0.833
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0

M. Ozuna★
DH
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

N. Gonzales★
3B
OPS
1.500
H-AB
3-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0

K. Griffin★
SS
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

J. Mangum★
LF
OPS
1.333
H-AB
2-3
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0

H. Davis★
C
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
8-32
R
2
RBI
2
HR
0
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() S. Horwitz★1B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() B. Lowe★2B | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
![]() B. Reynolds★LF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() R. O'Hearn★RF | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.833 |
![]() M. Ozuna★DH | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() N. Gonzales★3B | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.500 |
![]() K. Griffin★SS | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() J. Mangum★LF | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.333 |
![]() H. Davis★C | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| Team | 8-32 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — |

M. Montgomery★
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
1

J. Lawrence
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
1

W. Dotel
RP
IP
4.0
H
0
ER
0
K
3

E. Sisk
RP
IP
0.2
H
1
ER
0
K
0

I. Mattson
RP
IP
0.1
H
0
ER
0
K
1

G. Soto
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
0

D. Santana
RP
IP
0.2
H
4
ER
4
K
0

C. Sanders
RP
IP
0.1
H
0
ER
0
K
1
IP
9.0
H
6
ER
4
K
7
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() M. Montgomery★RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
![]() J. LawrenceRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
![]() W. DotelRP | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
![]() E. SiskRP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
![]() I. MattsonRP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
![]() G. SotoRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
![]() D. SantanaRP | 0.2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
![]() C. SandersRP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
Betting line
STL -1.5·O/U 8·STL -102/PIT -118