
PHI
8-17

CHC
16-9
Line movement
44 snapshots
CHC spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 9.5
open O/U 9.5
CHC no-vig %
48.9%
open 48.9%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Logged before first pitch · graded in public
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
PHI
league avg
CHC
.693
OPS
.718
▶.738
.298
OBP
.319
▶.337
4.23
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.75
4.06
Team ERA
4.18
4.28
1.30
WHIP
1.31
▶1.24
9.5
K / 9
8.5
7.9
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
CHC wins
PHI 7 · CHC 8 (by 1)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked CHC +12pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-105
Close price
-105
Open no-vig
48.9%
Close no-vig
48.9%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Logged before tip · graded in public
How we read this game
PHI · top performer

Adolis Garcia
RF
1-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
CHC · top performer

Seiya Suzuki
RF
4-3
AB-H
2
R
1
RBI
Biggest swing: 34pp · Top 9th Inning
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .225 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .198 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| .261 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .200 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .300 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| .209 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .151 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .261 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .086 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .278 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .221 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 38 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 99 | |
| 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | |
| 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | |
| Team | 9.1 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 155 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .304 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .260 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .250 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| .319 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| .333 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .198 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| .193 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .305 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .227 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .242 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .392 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 45 | 8 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 83 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 25 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | |
| 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 27 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Team | 10.0 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 162 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantPHI
CHC
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
8
Hits
18
7
Runs
8
0
Errors
1
Team stats
PHI
Away
Stat
CHC
Home
7
Runs
8
8
Hits
18
0
Errors
1
18
TB
30
3
HR
3
5
BB
5
7
K
7
17
LOB
30
Current series
CHC win series 4-0
Season series
CHC win series 6-1
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
PHI -1.5
Total
9.5
High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it ended
CHC beat PHI 8-7. S. Suzuki led the way — 3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS. Garc's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBusch · homered to center (421 feet), Suzuki scored and Kelly scored.
Suzuki · homered to left center (393 feet).
Garc · ía homered to left (378 feet).
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
Betting line
PHI -1.5·O/U 9.5·PHI -115/CHC -105
Recap · MLB
hicago Cubs held off Philadelphia Phillies, 8–7. It came down to the final possession.
CHC +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 5.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line movement · 44 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
9.5
0.0 since open
Win probability
CHC vs PHI
Period scoring
PHI won 2 · CHC won 3
Inn 1
Inn 2
Marsh 1
Swanson 1
Inn 3
Busch 3
Inn 4
Marsh 1
Happ 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Busch 1
Inn 7
Marsh 1
Inn 8
Sosa 1
Suzuki 1
Inn 9
Garc 1
Inn 10
Swanson 1
Play-by-play · 682 plays
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 8
Swanson singled to right, Happ scored, Kelly to second, Suzuki to third.BIG MOMENT
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 8
+18pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 8
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Tanner Banks pitches to Dansby Swanson
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 8
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Busch struck out looking.BIG MOMENT
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
−10pp
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Tanner Banks pitches to Michael Busch
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Kelly singled to center, Suzuki to second, Happ to third.BIG MOMENT
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
+10pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Tanner Banks pitches to Carson Kelly
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Suzuki intentionally walked.
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
−1pp
Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1
· ·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Tanner Banks pitches to Seiya Suzuki
·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Banks relieved Alvarado
·
PHI 7·CHC 7
Bottom of the 10th inning
PHI 7·CHC 7
Middle of the 10th inning
PHI 7·CHC 7
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 92 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.0%
ensemble · CHC favored
Elo Static
61.7%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.6%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.9%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.96 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
87% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.