Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TEX at ATH?

The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Texas Rangers vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 15, 2026

FINAL+1ATH

TEX

9-9

ATH

10-8

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

9,252 attended

Line movement

16 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

ATH no-vig %

51.5%

open 51.5%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.3%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
53.1%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.3%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.3%
P(ATH win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.52 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-117

Close price

-117

Open no-vig

51.5%

Close no-vig

51.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TEX at ATH?: The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

ATH vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 2.5medium
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.2± 2.3medium
MacKenzie GoreTEX
5.3± 2.8medium

Hits

Brandon NimmoTEX
1.3± 1.0high
Wyatt LangfordTEX
1.3± 1.1high
Zack GelofATH
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Wyatt LangfordTEX
2.5± 2.4high
Nick KurtzATH
2.2± 2.8high
Brandon NimmoTEX
2.2± 2.2high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
1.0± 1.7high
Wyatt LangfordTEX
0.8± 1.1high
Max MuncyATH
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.4± 2.0medium
Aaron CivaleATH
2.9± 3.4low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.9± 2.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

ATH

.708

OPS

.719

▶

.745

.319

OBP

.319

▶

.328

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.62

3.96

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.98

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.45

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

TEX 5 · ATH 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	0	5
ATH	1	1	0	0	0	2	2	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. NimmoRF	.319	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. SeagerSS	.203	3	2	1	2	1	1	1
W. LangfordLF	.183	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
E. CarterCF	.196	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. PedersonDH	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Jung3B	.231	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Smith2B	.170	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. JansenC	.233	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. DuranSS	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.254	2	1	1	3	1	0	1
A. McCutchenDH	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	5	5	5	2	5	8

Player

.319

.203

.183

.196

.200

.231

.170

.233

.222

.254

.222

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. RockerSP	4.2	4	2	2	4	6	97
J. BeeksRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	26
C. WinnRP	1.0	2	3	3	1	2	32
G. CollyerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
J. LatzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
Team	8.0	7	6	6	6	11	169

Player

4.2

1.0

1.0

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

169

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Kurtz1B	.186	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
S. LangeliersC	.304	5	1	2	2	1	0	0
C. CortesRF	.259	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
T. SoderstromLF	.212	2	1	1	1	0	2	1
J. WilsonSS	.254	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
J. McNeil2B	.278	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
M. Muncy3B	.288	3	1	0	0	0	0	3
L. ButlerRF	.182	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
D. ClarkeCF	.174	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
Team		30	6	7	6	2	6	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.T. GinnSP	5.1	2	2	2	4	3	78
H. HarrisRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	11
S. BarlowRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
M. Leiter Jr.RP	0.2	2	3	3	1	1	22
J. KuhnelRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	24
Team	9.0	5	5	5	5	8	152

Team

TEX

ATH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

ATH vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

ATH vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.