Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 13, 2026

FINAL+7MIN

BOS

6-10

613

MIN

10-7

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

14,535 attended

Line movement

13 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIN no-vig %

40.7%

open 40.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.7%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
45.9%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.0%
P(MIN win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

MIN vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.4± 2.9medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.7± 3.6low
Taj BradleyMIN
5.7± 2.4low

Hits

Byron BuxtonMIN
1.3± 0.8high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
1.2± 0.9high
Trevor LarnachMIN
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.7± 1.6high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
2.3± 2.9high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Josh BellMIN
0.9± 0.9high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
0.7± 1.1high
Brooks LeeMIN
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Austin VothMIN
3.7± 3.1low
Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.0± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

MIN

.693

OPS

.719

▶

.732

.312

OBP

.319

▶

.322

3.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.84

3.82

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.83

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.41

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

BOS 6 · MIN 13 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	0	3	0	0	1	2	0	0	6
MIN	4	7	0	0	2	0	0	0	13

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnthonyLF	.211	2	2	1	0	0	2	0
C. Durbin3B	.135	5	2	2	1	0	0	1
J. DuranLF	.196	5	1	1	2	1	0	1
W. Contreras1B	.304	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
W. AbreuRF	.355	3	0	2	1	0	1	1
T. StorySS	.188	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. Mayer2B	.186	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. NarvaezC	.216	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. RafaelaCF	.298	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. MonasterioSS	.167	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.083	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	6	10	6	1	4	10

Player

.211

.135

.196

.304

.355

.188

.186

.216

.298

.167

.083

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. CrochetSP	1.2	9	11	10	3	0	55
J. MoranRP	2.1	0	0	0	2	2	35
R. WatsonRP	2.0	2	2	2	0	2	35
T. SamaniegoRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	17
Team	8.0	11	13	12	5	4	142

Player

1.2

2.1

2.0

2.0

Team

8.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.200	5	2	2	1	1	0	1
A. MartinRF	.294	4	2	1	0	0	1	1
L. Keaschall2B	.215	4	2	1	1	0	1	1
R. JeffersC	.317	4	3	3	3	1	1	0
J. BellDH	.268	5	1	1	2	0	0	0
V. CaratiniC	.271	2	2	1	3	1	2	0
M. WallnerRF	.210	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. LeeSS	.239	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. KreidlerCF	.125	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	13	11	12	4	5	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. OberSP	6.0	7	4	4	1	7	95
E. OrzeRP	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	23
G. ActonRP	2.0	0	0	0	2	3	33
Team	9.0	10	6	6	4	10	151

Team

BOS

MIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

MIN vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

MIN vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.