Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 28, 2026

FINAL+1STL

0-2

STL

2-0

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

25,951 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

STL no-vig %

48.9%

open 48.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.1%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
53.7%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.2%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.2%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

STL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 3.4medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.8± 2.9medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.3± 1.4high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.3± 0.7high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
2.7± 3.7high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.1± 1.3high
Yandy DiazTB
2.0± 1.1high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.1± 2.0high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Dustin MaySTL
2.5± 2.1medium
Andre PallanteSTL
2.4± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

STL

.730

OPS

◀

.718

.717

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.324

4.52

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.47

3.78

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.26

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.35

8.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

TB 5 · STL 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	1	5
STL	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.400	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Aranda1B	.429	3	1	1	0	0	2	1
J. FraleyRF	.167	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Caminero3B	.400	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. MullinsCF	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SimpsonLF	.429	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
C. WilliamsSS	.222	4	1	1	2	0	0	1
R. Palacios2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. FeducciaC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. DeLucaRF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. FortesC	.667	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. Williamson2B	.500	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	5	7	4	0	3	8

Player

.400

.429

.167

.400

.000

.429

.222

.000

.000

.500

.667

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BoyleSP	6.0	3	2	2	0	4	75
C. SulserRP	2.0	2	2	1	1	2	41
B. BakerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
G. JaxRP	0.1	1	2	1	1	0	9
Team	9.1	6	6	4	2	8	138

Player

6.0

2.0

1.0

0.1

Team

9.1

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.333	5	1	2	2	0	0	0
I. HerreraDH	.125	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. Burleson1B	.571	3	1	1	2	0	0	0
M. WinnSS	.111	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Gorman3B	.250	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. Urias3B	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. ChurchLF	.375	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
J. WalkerRF	.167	2	2	0	0	0	2	0
V. Scott IICF	.500	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
J. FerminLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	6	6	6	0	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. McGreevySP	6.0	0	0	0	2	5	96
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	9
J. RomeroRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
M. SvansonRP	0.2	2	3	3	1	0	20
R. StanekRP	1.1	3	2	1	0	2	27
Team	10.0	7	5	4	3	8	169

Team

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

STL vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

STL vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.