
TB
0-2

STL
2-0
Line movement
7 snapshots
STL spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
STL no-vig %
48.9%
open 48.9%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Logged before first pitch · graded in public
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
TB
league avg
STL
.730
OPS
.718
.717
.336
OBP
.319
.324
4.52
Runs / G
4.50
4.47
3.78
Team ERA
4.17
4.26
1.20
WHIP
1.31
1.35
8.0
K / 9
8.5
7.5
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
STL wins
TB 5 · STL 6 (by 1)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked STL +4pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
TB · top performer

Chandler Simpson
LF
4-2
AB-H
1
R
0
RBI
STL · top performer

JJ Wetherholt
2B
5-2
AB-H
1
R
2
RBI
Biggest swing: 44pp · Bottom 10th Inning
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .400 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .429 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| .167 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .400 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .000 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .429 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .222 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .667 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .500 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 36 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 75 | |
| 2.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 41 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Team | 9.1 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 138 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .333 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .125 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .571 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .111 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .250 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .250 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .375 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .167 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| .500 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 32 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 96 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | |
| 0.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 20 | |
| 1.1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 27 | |
| Team | 10.0 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 169 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantTB
STL
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
7
Hits
6
5
Runs
6
1
Errors
2
Team stats
TB
Away
Stat
STL
Home
5
Runs
6
7
Hits
6
1
Errors
2
7
TB
8
0
HR
0
3
BB
2
8
K
8
15
LOB
7
Current series
STL wins series 2-1
Season series
STL leads series 2-0
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TB -1.5
Total
7.5
Defensive · -1.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
7.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
STL beat TB 6-5. J. Wetherholt led the way — 2-for-5 · 1 R · 0.800 OPS. Wetherholt's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (44pp).
Win probability
STL vs TB
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactFortes · singled to right, Williams scored, Fortes to second.
Díaz singled to center, Williamson scored.
Wetherholt · singled to right, Church scored and Walker scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
Period scoring
TB won 1 · STL won 3
Inn 1
Burleson 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Herrera 1
Inn 9
Williams 2
Inn 10
Wetherholt 2
Play-by-play · 597 plays
·
TB 5·STL 6
Wetherholt singled to right, Church scored and Walker scored.BIG MOMENT
· ·
TB 5·STL 6
+44pp
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
· ·
TB 5·STL 6
Griffin Jax pitches to JJ Wetherholt
· ·
TB 5·STL 6
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Scott II hit sacrifice bunt to third, Walker to second, Church to third.BIG MOMENT
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
+5pp
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Griffin Jax pitches to Victor Scott II
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Walker walked.BIG MOMENT
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
+17pp
Pitch 4 : Ball 4
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Griffin Jax pitches to Jordan Walker
·
TB 5·STL 4
Jax relieved Baker
·
TB 5·STL 4
DeLuca as designated hitter.
TB 5·STL 4
Bottom of the 10th inning
TB 5·STL 4
Middle of the 10th inning
TB 5·STL 4
·
TB 5·STL 4
Fraley struck out swinging, DeLuca caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Pitch 6 : Ball 3
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
TB 5·STL 4
Betting line
TB -1.5·O/U 7.5·TB -115/STL -105
Recap · MLB
t. Louis Cardinals held off Tampa Bay Rays, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.
STL +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 3.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-105
Close price
-105
Open no-vig
48.9%
Close no-vig
48.9%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Logged before tip · graded in public
How we read this game
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 93 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
54.1%
ensemble · STL favored
Elo Static
53.7%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.2%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.2%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.30 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
91% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.