WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+16LV

JPN

0-1

7894

1-0

WNBASun, Apr 26Final

JPN · top performer

Mai Yamamoto

G · #23

15.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LV · top performer

Chelsea Gray

G · #12

18.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. TodoF · #75	19	6	2-6	2-5	—	-11	4	3
M. TateyamaF · #19	20	8	3-8	0-1	2-3	-14	4	2
K. Juna UmezawaF · #24	17	8	2-4	1-2	3-3	-8	2	1
N. KonnoG · #2	26	12	4-11	2-6	2-2	0	9	2
M. YamamotoG · #23	28	24	8-20	7-13	1-2	-13	5	4
Bench
M. YabuF · #37	17	0	0-4	0-4	—	-7	3	0
N. TsunoF · #7	16	5	2-9	1-5	—	-11	0	1
M. ShiraishiF · #30	20	6	2-6	0-1	2-2	-2	1	0
S. HiguchiF · #74	14	5	2-3	1-1	—	-6	0	0
A. AsahinaC · #14	23	4	2-5	0-2	—	-8	3	2
Team		78	27-76	14-40	10-12		31	15
DNP: R. Okuyama, A. Hirashita

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. TalbotF · #7	22	2	1-4	0-2	—	+15	6	1
N. SmithF · #3	18	11	4-5	—	3-4	+24	13	1
C. GrayG · #12	27	16	4-8	1-5	7-7	+23	5	4
J. LoydG · #24	26	13	5-10	3-8	—	+15	1	1
J. YoungG · #0	26	17	7-18	0-7	3-3	+18	3	4
Bench
C. Parker-TyusF · #32	5	0	0-2	—	—	+1	0	0
B. TurnerF · #21	19	2	1-1	—	—	-5	5	0
K. BellF · #1	26	14	5-10	3-8	1-1	+2	3	3
J. BarkerF · #2	7	1	—	—	1-2	-13	2	0
C. CarterG · #23	20	18	5-10	1-4	7-9	-3	5	2
J. ObiG · #5	5	0	0-3	—	—	+3	1	1
Team		94	32-71	8-34	22-26		44	17

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

JPN

Away

Stat

Home

27-76

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-71

FG %

14-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-34

10-12

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-26

Assists

Turnovers

How it ended

LV beat JPN 94-78. C. Gray led with 16 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Starters vs bench

production by unit

JPNstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 24 REB · 12 AST

GS 46

Bench(5)

20 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST

LVstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 28 REB · 11 AST

GS 59

Bench(6)

35 PTS · 16 REB · 6 AST

GS 26

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
JPN	30	15	12	21	78
LV	30	22	19	23	94

Period scoring

JPN won 0 · LV won 3

JPN

Shooting comparison

JPN

36%

27-76

45%

32-71

35%

14-40

3PT

24%

8-34

83%

10-12

85%

22-26

Play-by-play · 424 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
JPN 78·LV 94
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
JPN 78·LV 94
Q4·11.8
Mai Yamamoto makes 29-foot three pointer
JPN 78·LV 94
Q4·25.8
Norika Konno defensive rebound
JPN 75·LV 94
Q4·25.8
Kadysha Juna Umezawa blocks NaLyssa Smith 's 5-foot two point shot
·
JPN 75·LV 94
Q4·27.1
NaLyssa Smith offensive rebound
JPN 75·LV 94
Q4·28.3
Jordan Obi misses 6-foot hook shot
JPN 75·LV 94
Q4·43.1
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
JPN 75·LV 94
Q4·45.3
Brianna Turner blocks Kadysha Juna Umezawa 's 4-foot two point shot
·
JPN 75·LV 94
Q4·46.4
Kadysha Juna Umezawa offensive rebound
JPN 75·LV 94
Q4·48.7
Nanami Tsuno misses driving layup
JPN 75·LV 94
Q4·55.5
Chennedy Carter makes free throw 2 of 2
JPN 75·LV 94
Q4·55.5
Chennedy Carter makes free throw 1 of 2
JPN 75·LV 93
Q4·55.5
Nanami Tsuno personal foul
JPN 75·LV 92
Q4·1:02
Kierstan Bell defensive rebound
JPN 75·LV 92
Q4·1:06
Mai Yamamoto misses 27-foot three point jumper
JPN 75·LV 92
Q4·1:23
Chennedy Carter makes 4-foot layup (Kierstan Bell assists)
·
JPN 75·LV 92
Q4·1:25
NaLyssa Smith offensive rebound
JPN 75·LV 90
Q4·1:29
Jordan Obi misses 6-foot turnaround jump shot
JPN 75·LV 90
Q4·1:48
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
JPN 75·LV 90
Q4·1:50
Norika Konno misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
JPN 75·LV 90
Q4·2:05
Kierstan Bell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Obi assists)
·
JPN 75·LV 90
Q4·2:14
Mio Shiraishi enters the game for Mona Tateyama
·
JPN 75·LV 87
Q4·2:14
NaLyssa Smith enters the game for Janiah Barker
·
JPN 75·LV 87
Q4·2:14
Aces Full timeout
JPN 75·LV 87
Q4·2:15
Mai Yamamoto makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mona Tateyama assists)
·
JPN 75·LV 87
Q4·2:40
Chennedy Carter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kierstan Bell assists)
·
JPN 72·LV 87
Q4·2:42
Kierstan Bell offensive rebound
JPN 72·LV 84
Q4·2:44
Chennedy Carter misses 25-foot three point jumper
JPN 72·LV 84
Q4·2:46
Jordan Obi offensive rebound
JPN 72·LV 84

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces held off JAPAN, 94–78.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

JPN

eFG%

shooting

44.7%

50.7%

TOV%

ball control

14.7%

12.7%

OREB%

offensive glass

20.0%

34.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

13.2%

31.0%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 8 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396
Chelsea GrayLV · G
AST/TO2.183
Jewell LoydLV · G
AST/TO2.181

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.2%

ensemble · JPN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LV vs JPN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
25.8± 6.6medium
Jackie YoungLV
17.7± 7.6medium
Chennedy CarterLV
14.2± 12.2low

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.6± 4.4medium
NaLyssa SmithLV
6.9± 3.3medium
Jackie YoungLV
4.2± 2.4medium

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
7.3± 2.5medium
Jackie YoungLV
7.1± 2.4medium
A'ja WilsonLV
3.2± 2.6medium

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
2.1± 2.0medium
Cheyenne Parker-TyusLV
0.7± 0.8medium
Kierstan BellLV
0.5± 1.1low

Steals

A'ja WilsonLV
1.5± 1.6medium
Chelsea GrayLV
1.3± 1.0medium
Jewell LoydLV
1.2± 1.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · wehoop