WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+7MIN

TOR

0-2

6673

MIN

3-0

WNBAFri, May 1FinalSeriesMIN leads series 1-0VegasMIN -6.5

TOR · top performer

Elizabeth Balogun

G · #4

8.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Emma Cechova

F · #22

13.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 3:04

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JuskaiteF · #2	28	6	2-10	0-3	2-2	-5	7	1
T. FagbenleC · #14	15	4	2-7	—	—	+1	7	2
B. SykesG · #20	17	8	3-9	0-3	2-2	-4	1	0
K. NurseG · #11	15	7	2-5	1-3	2-2	+6	0	0
J. AllemandG · #22	22	5	2-3	1-2	—	+6	6	2
Bench
T. KeyF · #7	22	4	1-6	0-1	2-4	-3	6	2
E. BalogunG · #4	15	12	5-8	2-3	—	-7	1	0
L. HeldG · #12	23	5	2-8	1-3	—	-3	1	0
K. RiceG · #1	23	10	4-7	0-1	2-3	-14	2	2
A. NyeG · #13	20	5	1-5	1-5	2-3	-12	3	2
Team		66	24-68	6-24	12-16		34	11
DNP: N. Milic

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	13	0	0-5	—	—	-6	2	2
N. CoffeyF · #12	17	9	4-6	1-2	—	+2	4	0
K. McBrideG · #21	21	13	4-7	—	5-7	0	3	1
C. WilliamsG · #10	17	0	0-5	—	—	-2	5	6
O. MilesG · #5	28	13	5-13	0-1	3-5	+1	6	2
Bench
L. KingF · #2	10	3	1-3	—	1-4	-7	3	0
A. DelaereF · #8	17	2	0-2	—	2-2	+6	1	2
A. KosuF · #7	15	10	3-4	—	4-4	+12	5	0
E. CechovaF · #22	24	16	5-7	—	6-10	+13	6	0
J. SherrodG · #00	6	0	—	—	0-2	0	1	1
S. PoffenbargerG · #9	15	0	0-1	0-1	—	+8	2	0
E. HamzovaG · #11	18	7	2-3	1-1	2-3	+8	2	1
Team		73	24-56	2-5	23-37		40	15
DNP: A. Griffin, J. Masogayo, R. Richardson, L. White

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

24-68

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

24-56

FG %

6-24

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

2-5

12-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-37

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN leads series 1-0

May 22

TOR72@

MIN100

Jul 29

TOR@

MINupcoming

Jul 30

MIN@

TORupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

158.5

Defensive · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+21032%

MIN-25872%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -6.5↗SpreadBet MIN -6.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

158.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat TOR 73-66. E. Cechova led with 16 PTS, 6 REB, 0 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 45% of pts

Starters(5)

30 PTS · 21 REB · 5 AST

GS 13

Bench(5)

36 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST

GS 21

MINstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

35 PTS · 20 REB · 11 AST

GS 21

Bench(7)

38 PTS · 20 REB · 4 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN4th Quarter · 4:08 · 62-61

+12pp→ 58% WP

Kiki Rice · shooting foul

TOR4th Quarter · 3:57 · 64-62

+15pp→ 61% WP

Elizabeth Balogun · makes driving layup

MIN4th Quarter · 3:04 · 66-67

+15pp→ 54% WP

Eliska Hamzova · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Olivia Miles assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	16	21	15	14	66
MIN	18	18	17	20	73

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · MIN won 3

Nye 5

Kosu 6

Rice 7

Miles 6

Sykes 4

Cechova 7

Nurse 5

Hamzova 5

TOR

MIN

Shooting comparison

TOR

MIN

35%

24-68

43%

24-56

25%

6-24

3PT

40%

2-5

75%

12-16

62%

23-37

Play-by-play · 440 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 66·MIN 73
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 66·MIN 73
Q4·20.2
Aaliyah Nye out of bounds bad pass turnover
TOR 66·MIN 73
+1pp
Q4·26.3
Tempo Full timeout
TOR 66·MIN 73
Q4·26.3
Emma Cechova makes layup
TOR 66·MIN 73
+3pp
Q4·40.3
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu defensive rebound
TOR 66·MIN 71
+1pp
Q4·43.5
Aaliyah Nye misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
TOR 66·MIN 71
+4pp
Q4·47.6
Emma Cechova lost ball turnover (Lexi Held steals)
·
TOR 66·MIN 71
−4pp
Q4·52.1
Lynx timeout
TOR 66·MIN 71
Q4·52.1
Lynx defensive team rebound
TOR 66·MIN 71
+1pp
Q4·52.9
Elizabeth Balogun misses 8-foot jumper
TOR 66·MIN 71
+5pp
Q4·1:04
Tempo timeout
TOR 66·MIN 71
Q4·1:05
Emma Cechova makes 2-foot layup (Eliska Hamzova assists)BIG MOMENT
·
TOR 66·MIN 71
+6pp
Q4·1:07
Antonia Delaere enters the game for Olivia Miles
·
TOR 66·MIN 69
Q4·1:07
Lynx Full timeout
TOR 66·MIN 69
Q4·1:07
Saylor Poffenbarger defensive rebound
TOR 66·MIN 69
+3pp
Q4·1:08
Aaliyah Nye misses 25-foot running jump shotBIG MOMENT
TOR 66·MIN 69
+8pp
Q4·1:13
Aaliyah Nye defensive rebound
TOR 66·MIN 69
−2pp
Q4·1:17
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses 3-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
TOR 66·MIN 69
−6pp
Q4·1:25
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu defensive rebound
TOR 66·MIN 69
+2pp
Q4·1:28
Lexi Held misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 66·MIN 69
Q4·1:52
(01:52) [Lynx] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Lynx] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
TOR 66·MIN 69
+7pp
Q4·1:52
Lynx Full timeout
TOR 66·MIN 69
Q4·1:52
Tempo defensive team rebound
TOR 66·MIN 69
−2pp
Q4·1:52
Olivia Miles misses running layupBIG MOMENT
TOR 66·MIN 69
−5pp
Q4·1:57
Emma Cechova defensive rebound
TOR 66·MIN 69
+2pp
Q4·2:00
Lexi Held misses 15-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
TOR 66·MIN 69
+5pp
Q4·2:02
Lexi Held offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
TOR 66·MIN 69
−5pp
Q4·2:06
Emma Cechova blocks Laura Juskaite 's 5-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
TOR 66·MIN 69
+6pp
Q4·2:23
Tempo Full timeout
TOR 66·MIN 69

Betting line

MIN -6.5·O/U 158.5·TOR +210/MIN -258

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx held off Toronto Tempo, 73–66.

MIN -6.5 cashed (won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 158.5 by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

TOR

MIN

eFG%

shooting

39.7%

44.6%

TOV%

ball control

10.7%

17.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

19.4%

28.9%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

17.6%

41.1%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391
Olivia MilesMIN · G
TS%.65191

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.3%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 20 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
19.9± 9.6medium
Olivia MilesMIN
19.4± 7.6high
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium

Rebounds

Natasha HowardMIN
6.9± 2.5medium
Nia CoffeyMIN
6.1± 1.6high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
6.0± 3.4low

Assists

Olivia MilesMIN
5.4± 2.3high
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.0± 1.6high
Marina MabreyTOR
4.0± 2.3medium

Blocks

Nia CoffeyMIN
1.6± 1.3high
Nyara SaballyTOR
1.3± 1.6low
Liatu KingMIN
0.8± 1.6low

Steals

Natasha HowardMIN
2.2± 2.0medium
Laura JuskaiteTOR
1.7± 1.5medium
Julie AllemandTOR
1.6± 1.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

TOR

league avg

MIN

43.8%

FG%

44.7

▶

50.1%

35.0%

3PT %

33.5

▶

38.8%

89.6

PPG

85.9

▶

91.5

19.4

Assists / G

18.0

▶

21.6

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

13.9

Data via ESPN · wehoop