ATL
1-0
CHI
0-2
ATL · top performer
Te-Hina Paopao
G · #2
13
Pts
3
Reb
4
Ast
CHI · top performer
Tonie Morgan
G · #6
9
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:02
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Chicago Sky · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 13 | 8 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 4-8 | +14 | 7 | 2 | |
| 25 | 11 | 3-6 | — | 5-8 | -1 | 6 | 1 | |
| 10 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-4 | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| 12 | 9 | 3-5 | 3-3 | — | +7 | 0 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 7 | 5 | 2-3 | — | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +11 | 4 | 0 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 14 | 5-14 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 0 | 11 | 0 | |
| 24 | 13 | 5-7 | 3-4 | — | +8 | 3 | 4 | |
| 11 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0-1 | -5 | 2 | 2 | |
| 24 | 13 | 4-14 | 0-4 | 5-5 | +11 | 1 | 3 | |
| Team | 87 | 30-72 | 8-23 | 19-30 | 39 | 18 | ||
| DNP: H. Winterburn, P. Robinson, K. Ran | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 22 | 9 | 2-10 | 0-2 | 5-5 | -10 | 3 | 1 | |
| 16 | 3 | 1-5 | — | 1-2 | -14 | 4 | 0 | |
| 18 | 9 | 3-4 | 3-4 | — | -5 | 1 | 1 | |
| 17 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-1 | — | -24 | 2 | 0 | |
| 15 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | -16 | 2 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | — | +8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | +3 | 2 | 0 | |
| 11 | 2 | 0-2 | — | 2-4 | -7 | 1 | 1 | |
| 24 | 5 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 1-1 | +14 | 1 | 6 | |
| 12 | 9 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 2-2 | -3 | 5 | 4 | |
| 17 | 23 | 7-13 | 2-7 | 7-11 | +2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 12 | 4 | 1-2 | — | 2-3 | -2 | 4 | 0 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | +9 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 78 | 25-62 | 8-21 | 20-30 | 32 | 18 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
40
18
Ast
18
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
30-72
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
25-62
42
FG %
40
8-23
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-21
19-30
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-30
8
OR
6
31
DR
26
18
Assists
18
12
Turnovers
17
Season series
ATL leads series 1-0
ATL82@CHI75CHI@ATLupcomingCHI@ATLupcomingHow it ended
ATL beat CHI 87-78. T. Paopao led with 13 PTS, 3 REB, 4 AST. ATL outscored the other side 25-17 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CHI vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 40% of ptsStarters(5)
35 PTS · 14 REB · 9 AST
GS 29
Bench(8)
52 PTS · 25 REB · 9 AST
GS 31
CHIstarters 32% of ptsStarters(5)
25 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST
GS 6
Bench(8)
53 PTS · 20 REB · 15 AST
GS 46
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactRhyne Howard · personal foul
Bella Fontleroy · shooting foul
Tonie Morgan · makes 22-foot running jump shot (Hailey Van Lith assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 25 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 87 |
| CHI | 17 | 13 | 28 | 20 | 78 |
Period scoring
ATL won 3 · CHI won 1
Q1
Howard 6
Banham 6
Q2
Howard 6
Jackson 5
Q3
Paopao 8
Taylor 12
Q4
Okot 8
Taylor 11
Shooting comparison
42%
30-72
FG
40%
25-62
35%
8-23
3PT
38%
8-21
63%
19-30
FT
67%
20-30
Play-by-play · 464 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 87·CHI 78
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 87·CHI 78
- Q4·12.2
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 87·CHI 78
- Q4·14.2
Bella Fontleroy misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 87·CHI 78
- Q4·18.7
Hailey Van Lith bad pass turnover (Sacha Washington steals)
·
ATL 87·CHI 78
- Q4·31.8
Sacha Washington makes two point shot
ATL 87·CHI 78
- Q4·31.8
Sacha Washington offensive rebound
ATL 85·CHI 78
−1pp
- Q4·33.0
Isobel Borlase misses 12-foot turnaround jump shot
ATL 85·CHI 78
- Q4·50.4
Tonie Morgan makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 85·CHI 78
−1pp
- Q4·50.4
Sacha Washington enters the game for Madina Okot
·
ATL 85·CHI 77
- Q4·50.4
Tonie Morgan makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 85·CHI 77
- Q4·50.4
Laila Phelia shooting foul
ATL 85·CHI 76
+1pp
- Q4·1:08
Madina Okot makes driving layup
ATL 85·CHI 76
−1pp
- Q4·1:14
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 83·CHI 76
−2pp
- Q4·1:15
Madina Okot misses layup
ATL 83·CHI 76
+1pp
- Q4·1:26
Madina Okot enters the game for Sacha Washington
·
ATL 83·CHI 76
- Q4·1:30
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 83·CHI 76
−2pp
- Q4·1:30
Sydney Taylor blocks Isobel Borlase 's 3-foot running layup
·
ATL 83·CHI 76
+2pp
- Q4·1:36
Dream defensive team rebound
ATL 83·CHI 76
- Q4·1:36
Bella Fontleroy vs. Megan Nestor (Isobel Borlase gains possession)
· ·
ATL 83·CHI 76
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:36
Hailey Van Lith misses driving layup
ATL 83·CHI 76
−2pp
- Q4·1:42
Tonie Morgan offensive rebound
ATL 83·CHI 76
+2pp
- Q4·1:46
Sydney Taylor misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 83·CHI 76
−3pp
- Q4·1:54
Laila Phelia enters the game for Madina Okot
·
ATL 83·CHI 76
- Q4·1:54
Isobel Borlase traveling turnover
ATL 83·CHI 76
+3pp
- Q4·2:04
Tonie Morgan makes running layup
ATL 83·CHI 76
+1pp
- Q4·2:08
Tonie Morgan defensive rebound
ATL 83·CHI 74
- Q4·2:13
Madina Okot misses driving layup
ATL 83·CHI 74
+0.7pp
- Q4·2:28
Madina Okot defensive rebound
ATL 83·CHI 74
- Q4·2:31
Sacha Washington blocks Megan Nestor 's 5-foot layup
·
ATL 83·CHI 74
−2pp
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream went into Chicago Sky and beat them, 87–78.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Four factors · this game
Who won the possession battle
Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.
ATLCHIeFG%
shooting
TOV%
ball control
OREB%
offensive glass
FT rate
free throws / FGA
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 11 players in cohort
Angel ReeseATL · FORB%.20899+
Jordin CanadaATL · GAST/TO2.995
Kamilla CardosoCHI · CORB%.10789
Rhyne HowardATL · GAST/TO2.288
Jacy SheldonCHI · GTS%.61075
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.2%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rhyne HowardATL19.1± 8.7medium
- Allisha GrayATL18.0± 5.7medium
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL11.8± 4.1medium
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.1± 4.9medium
- Azura StevensCHI6.1± 5.3low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL7.4± 3.5medium
- Skylar DigginsCHI4.3± 3.1medium
- Natasha CloudCHI4.1± 2.8medium
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.9± 2.1medium
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.2± 1.1medium
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.8± 2.3medium
- Jordin CanadaATL2.0± 1.7medium
- Allisha GrayATL1.9± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
CHI
44.7%
FG%
44.7
42.6%
34.2%
3PT %
33.5
31.4%
90.2
PPG
85.9
83.7
20.3
Assists / G
18.0
19.5
12.5
Turnovers / G
13.0
12.7