WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+10SEA

POR

0-1

8191

SEA

1-1

WNBAWed, Apr 29FinalSeriesPOR leads series 1-0

POR · top performer

Luisa Geiselsoder

C · #15

10.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SEA · top performer

Flau'jae Johnson

G · #4

12.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 19pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:49

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
E. EngstlerF · #21	17	5	2-5	1-3	—	-17	7	2
N. PuochF · #13	21	4	1-5	0-1	2-4	-16	3	1
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	21	15	3-5	2-4	7-8	-2	0	1
S. BarkerG · #3	33	14	4-10	0-3	6-8	+3	6	3
C. LeiteG · #0	22	12	3-6	1-2	5-11	-11	2	5
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #22	7	3	1-1	1-1	0-1	+5	0	0
M. GustafsonC · #17	23	8	3-7	1-4	1-2	-2	2	0
S. WilliamsC · #25	10	9	3-3	—	3-4	0	3	0
H. JonesG · #30	28	6	2-8	0-2	2-2	-1	7	0
J. HarrisonG · #2	21	5	2-8	0-3	1-1	-9	2	3
Team		81	24-58	6-23	27-41		32	15
DNP: B. Carleton, K. Smalls, C. Bibby, F. Buhner, K. Samuelson, S. Sutton, M. Caldwell, Martin Carrion, T. Oblak

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. DolsonC · #31	16	6	2-4	0-1	2-3	+3	2	0
D. MalongaC · #14	19	10	3-9	0-1	4-6	+4	11	1
L. BrownG · #8	19	6	2-6	0-3	2-2	-4	6	1
N. HiedemanG · #2	14	0	0-4	0-2	—	+1	2	3
F. JohnsonG · #4	19	20	5-12	3-7	7-8	+3	3	1
Bench
B. MompremierF · #32	2	0	0-1	—	—	-2	0	0
M. HolmesF · #54	21	8	2-7	0-1	4-4	+6	7	0
G. VanSlootenF · #40	8	1	0-1	—	1-2	+6	1	0
Jae. BrownG · #18	12	6	1-4	1-3	3-4	+7	0	0
R. DavisG · #0	11	6	3-3	—	—	+5	2	1
Z. CookeG · #7	18	19	5-12	4-9	5-7	+5	0	0
Jal. BrownG · #35	4	0	0-1	—	—	0	3	1
J. MelbourneG · #5	18	4	1-5	0-2	2-4	+6	1	3
E. LadineG · #24	6	3	1-2	1-2	—	+4	1	0
T. MairG · #22	12	2	0-2	—	2-2	+6	4	5
Team		91	25-73	9-31	32-42		43	16
DNP: K. Samuelson, E. Magbegor, J. Horston, A. Fam

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

24-58

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

25-73

FG %

6-23

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-31

27-41

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

32-42

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

POR leads series 1-0

Jun 18

SEA89@

POR94

Jul 5

POR@

SEAupcoming

Aug 9

SEA@

PORupcoming

Aug 15

POR@

SEAupcoming

How it ended

SEA beat POR 91-81. F. Johnson led with 20 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST. SEA outscored the other side 27-19 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SEA vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

50 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST

GS 36

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 14 REB · 3 AST

GS 20

SEAstarters 46% of pts

Starters(5)

42 PTS · 24 REB · 6 AST

GS 30

Bench(10)

49 PTS · 19 REB · 10 AST

GS 29

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SEA1st Quarter · 3.6 · 19-27

+16pp→ 73% WP

Flau'jae Johnson · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Rennia Davis assists)

SEA2nd Quarter · 5:49 · 29-39

+19pp→ 83% WP

Jade Melbourne · offensive rebound

POR4th Quarter · 5:56 · 73-78

+18pp→ 19% WP

Mackenzie Holmes de · fensive rebound

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	19	23	18	21	81
SEA	27	18	22	24	91

Period scoring

POR won 1 · SEA won 3

Geiselsoder 6

Johnson 16

Barker 7

Melbourne 20

Geiselsoder 5

Johnson 7

Leite 6

Mair 24

POR

SEA

Shooting comparison

POR

SEA

41%

24-58

34%

25-73

26%

6-23

3PT

29%

9-31

66%

27-41

76%

32-42

Play-by-play · 505 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 81·SEA 91
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 81·SEA 91
Q4·13.4
Jalyn Brown defensive rebound
· ·
POR 81·SEA 91
Q4·16.5
Serah Williams misses free throw 2 of 2
·
POR 81·SEA 91
Q4·16.5
Serah Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
·
POR 81·SEA 91
Q4·16.5
Beatrice Mompremier loose ball foul
POR 80·SEA 91
Q4·16.5
Fire defensive team rebound
POR 80·SEA 91
Q4·18.2
Jaelyn Brown misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
· ·
POR 80·SEA 91
Q4·19.4
Elle Ladine offensive rebound
POR 80·SEA 91
Q4·23.0
Jaelyn Brown misses 26-foot three point jumper
· ·
POR 80·SEA 91
Q4·34.5
Peyton Williams vs. Beatrice Mompremier (Taina Mair gains possession)
· ·
POR 80·SEA 91
Q4·50.9
Haley Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 80·SEA 91
Q4·50.9
Haley Jones makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 79·SEA 91
Q4·50.9
Elle Ladine personal foul
POR 78·SEA 91
Q4·53.4
Haley Jones defensive rebound
POR 78·SEA 91
Q4·56.5
Beatrice Mompremier misses layup
POR 78·SEA 91
Q4·1:09
Jalyn Brown defensive rebound
· ·
POR 78·SEA 91
Q4·1:13
Jordan Harrison misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
POR 78·SEA 91
Q4·1:25
Jaelyn Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Taina Mair assists)
· ·
POR 78·SEA 91
Q4·1:26
Taina Mair defensive rebound
POR 78·SEA 88
Q4·1:28
Haley Jones misses 24-foot three point jumper
POR 78·SEA 88
Q4·1:45
Serah Williams makes 5-foot jumper
·
POR 78·SEA 88
Q4·1:46
Serah Williams defensive rebound
·
POR 76·SEA 88
Q4·1:48
Serah Williams blocks Taina Mair 's 17-foot jumper
· ·
POR 76·SEA 88
Q4·2:04
Taina Mair bad pass turnover (Nyadiew Puoch steals)
·
POR 76·SEA 88
Q4·2:13
Storm defensive team rebound
POR 76·SEA 88
Q4·2:15
Nyadiew Puoch misses 24-foot three point jumper
POR 76·SEA 88
Q4·2:18
Peyton Williams enters the game for Carla Leite
· ·
POR 76·SEA 88
Q4·2:18
Beatrice Mompremier enters the game for Mackenzie HolmesBIG MOMENT
·
POR 76·SEA 88
+19pp
Q4·2:18
Fire Full timeout
POR 76·SEA 88

Recap · WNBA

eattle Storm held off Portland Fire, 91–81.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

POR

SEA

eFG%

shooting

46.6%

40.4%

TOV%

ball control

17.4%

14.9%

OREB%

offensive glass

23.5%

41.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

46.6%

43.8%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Megan GustafsonPOR · C
TS%.67497
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Sarah Ashlee BarkerPOR · G
eFG%.60289
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588
Natisha HiedemanSEA · G
USG%.25484

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 15 high confidence

Points

Dominique MalongaSEA
16.8± 13.5low
Natisha HiedemanSEA
16.5± 4.8medium
Carla LeitePOR
13.6± 5.7medium

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
7.1± 4.2low
Awa FamSEA
5.6± 2.5low
Emily EngstlerPOR
5.2± 3.4medium

Assists

Carla LeitePOR
5.9± 3.6medium
Natisha HiedemanSEA
5.1± 2.7medium
Teja OblakPOR
3.4± 2.5low

Blocks

Emily EngstlerPOR
1.9± 0.9medium
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.2± 1.7low
Awa FamSEA
0.8± 1.5low

Steals

Bridget CarletonPOR
1.4± 1.2medium
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.3± 1.4medium
Jordan HorstonSEA
1.3± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

POR

league avg

SEA

44.6%

FG%

◀

44.7

40.8%

34.1%

3PT %

◀

33.5

33.1%

82.2

PPG

◀

85.9

76.9

19.8

Assists / G

◀

18.0

17.9

14.8

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

13.8

Data via ESPN · wehoop