WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CON

CON

1-0

8378

TOR

0-1

WNBAWed, Apr 29FinalSeriesTOR leads series 2-0

CON · top performer

Aneesah Morrow

F · #24

21.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Lexi Held

G · #12

17.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCON ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 1:49

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. EdwardsF · #8	17	14	6-8	0-1	2-2	-2	5	0
D. MillerF · #1	18	8	2-3	0-1	4-4	-12	1	3
B. GrinerC · #42	16	7	3-7	0-1	1-5	-8	5	2
K. BurkeG · #22	21	13	5-8	3-5	—	+9	2	3
S. RiversG · #22	23	0	0-6	0-3	—	-3	1	3
Bench
A. MorrowF · #24	23	21	7-10	1-3	6-6	+7	7	0
R. BeersF · #15	11	4	2-2	—	—	+12	5	2
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	12	3	1-1	—	1-6	+2	4	0
M. HayesG · #21	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	+7	0	1
T. BigbyG · #2	9	2	1-2	0-1	—	+6	1	1
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	24	8	3-4	—	2-3	+11	2	4
G. KneepkensG · #5	13	3	1-6	1-3	0-2	+1	2	0
M. ToureG · #28	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	0	0
Team		83	31-59	5-20	16-28		35	19
DNP: N. Angloma, K. Oldacre, S. Peddy, H. Turner, L. Lacan

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SaballyF · #8	10	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	-7	1	1
T. FagbenleC · #14	21	4	2-3	0-1	—	+9	3	2
K. NurseG · #11	18	8	3-11	2-8	—	-14	0	0
L. HeldG · #12	22	21	7-10	5-8	2-2	+8	0	2
K. RiceG · #1	17	5	2-6	1-1	—	-6	1	2
Bench
T. KeyF · #7	18	0	0-1	0-1	—	-8	1	0
L. JuskaiteF · #2	19	10	3-8	0-1	4-6	-17	4	2
K. WallaceG · #5	17	5	1-4	1-3	2-4	-5	2	3
E. BalogunG · #4	15	6	3-5	0-2	—	+8	4	0
D. MabreyG · #15	14	0	0-4	0-3	—	+1	3	1
A. NyeG · #13	17	6	2-2	2-2	—	+19	0	1
M. RocciG · #9	14	11	2-6	—	7-7	-13	2	3
Team		78	25-62	11-31	17-21		21	17
DNP: I. Harrison, M. Conde, N. Milic, C. Dunn, S. Shiels, B. Sykes, M. Mabrey, K. Laksa, J. Allemand

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

31-59

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

25-62

FG %

5-20

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-31

16-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR leads series 2-0

Jun 10

CON102@

TOR106

Jun 19

TOR101@

CON97

Sep 24

TOR@

CONupcoming

How it ended

CON beat TOR 83-78. A. Morrow led with 21 PTS, 7 REB, 0 AST. CON outscored the other side 26-12 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs CON

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CONstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

42 PTS · 14 REB · 11 AST

GS 27

Bench(8)

41 PTS · 21 REB · 8 AST

GS 29

TORstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

40 PTS · 5 REB · 7 AST

GS 26

Bench(7)

38 PTS · 16 REB · 10 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR4th Quarter · 5:17 · 66-71

+13pp→ 80% WP

Lexi Held · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Aaliyah Nye assists)

CON4th Quarter · 2:59 · 75-71

+16pp→ 80% WP

Aneesah Morrow · makes 26-foot three pointer

CON4th Quarter · 1:49 · 77-73

+22pp→ 85% WP

Lexi Held · back court turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CON	20	20	17	26	83
TOR	20	27	19	12	78

Period scoring

CON won 1 · TOR won 2

Morrow 8

Held 9

Edwards 8

Rocci 9

Burke 5

Fagbenle 4

Morrow 13

Held 6

CON

TOR

Shooting comparison

CON

TOR

53%

31-59

40%

25-62

25%

5-20

3PT

35%

11-31

57%

16-28

81%

17-21

Play-by-play · 440 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 83·TOR 78
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 83·TOR 78
Q4·1.1
Lexi Held lost ball turnover (Madison Hayes steals)
·
CON 83·TOR 78
−1pp
Q4·6.8
Aneesah Morrow makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 83·TOR 78
+0.7pp
Q4·6.8
Madison Hayes enters the game for Raegan Beers
·
CON 82·TOR 78
Q4·6.8
Aneesah Morrow makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 82·TOR 78
Q4·6.8
Elizabeth Balogun personal foulBIG MOMENT
CON 81·TOR 78
−12pp
Q4·11.4
Charlisse Leger-Walker makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
CON 81·TOR 78
+8pp
Q4·11.4
Maddison Rocci away from play foulBIG MOMENT
CON 80·TOR 78
−9pp
Q4·11.4
Maddison Rocci makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CON 80·TOR 78
−8pp
Q4·11.4
Raegan Beers enters the game for Madison Hayes
·
CON 80·TOR 77
Q4·11.4
Maddison Rocci makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 80·TOR 77
+2pp
Q4·11.4
Mamignan Toure personal foulBIG MOMENT
CON 80·TOR 76
+11pp
Q4·12.9
Tempo timeout
CON 80·TOR 76
Q4·12.9
Laura Juskaite defensive rebound
CON 80·TOR 76
−0.5pp
Q4·14.0
Charlisse Leger-Walker misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CON 80·TOR 76
+6pp
Q4·14.0
Charlisse Leger-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 80·TOR 76
−0.6pp
Q4·14.0
Lexi Held personal foul
CON 79·TOR 76
−5pp
Q4·16.4
Aneesah Morrow offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CON 79·TOR 76
−10pp
Q4·20.2
Gianna Kneepkens misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CON 79·TOR 76
+9pp
Q4·20.2
Mamignan Toure enters the game for Raegan Beers
·
CON 79·TOR 76
Q4·20.2
Sun offensive team rebound
CON 79·TOR 76
+2pp
Q4·20.2
Gianna Kneepkens misses free throw 1 of 2
CON 79·TOR 76
+2pp
Q4·20.2
Laura Juskaite enters the game for Teonni Key
·
CON 79·TOR 76
Q4·20.2
Teonni Key shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CON 79·TOR 76
−9pp
Q4·38.5
Lexi Held makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Maddison Rocci assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CON 79·TOR 76
+7pp
Q4·48.4
Tempo Full timeout
CON 79·TOR 73
Q4·48.4
Aneesah Morrow makes running layup
CON 79·TOR 73
−4pp
Q4·52.3
Maddison Rocci lost ball turnover (Aneesah Morrow steals)BIG MOMENT
·
CON 77·TOR 73
−9pp
Q4·58.9
Maddison Rocci defensive rebound
CON 77·TOR 73
+2pp

Recap · WNBA

onnecticut Sun went into Toronto Tempo and beat them, 83–78.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

TOR

eFG%

shooting

56.8%

49.2%

TOV%

ball control

26.0%

23.6%

OREB%

offensive glass

39.3%

14.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

27.1%

27.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowCON · F
DRB%.37599+
Kiki RiceTOR · G
TS%.67095
Nyara SaballyTOR · F
ORB%.10991
Saniya RiversCON · G
AST/TO2.179
Laura JuskaiteTOR · F
TS%.60874

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.2%

ensemble · CON favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 15 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
19.9± 9.6medium
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
13.0± 7.3low

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowCON
9.8± 5.3medium
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
6.0± 3.4low
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
5.4± 5.7medium

Assists

Leila LacanCON
4.4± 2.9low
Marina MabreyTOR
4.0± 2.3medium
Julie AllemandTOR
3.8± 3.0low

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.7low
Nyara SaballyTOR
1.3± 1.6low
Saniya RiversCON
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Leila LacanCON
1.8± 1.5low
Laura JuskaiteTOR
1.7± 1.5medium
Julie AllemandTOR
1.6± 1.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

CON

league avg

TOR

42.6%

FG%

44.7

▶

43.8%

26.0%

3PT %

33.5

▶

35.0%

79.2

PPG

85.9

▶

89.6

18.7

Assists / G

18.0

▶

19.4

13.4

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · wehoop