Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills: NFL Prediction, Pick & Odds — Sep 17, 2026

DET

PregameThu, 8:15 PM EDT

BUF

Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

ATS form

50.0%

BUF last 10 against the number

BUF has covered consistently lately, backing market trust before kickoff today again.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team rate stats · season-to-date

Tale of the tape

nflverse · weekly aggregates

DET

league avg

BUF

32.1

Pts / game

◀

23.5

31.1

389

Yds / game

342

▶

394

269

Pass yds / G

◀

225

234

120

Rush yds / G

117

▶

160

0.7

TO / G

◀

0.9

1.0

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills

3 sub-models, blended.

Tale of the tape

3 sub-models, blended.

Tale of the tape