NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+20HOU

UTAH

18-40

105125

HOU

35-21

NBAMon, Feb 23FinalSeriesHOU leads series 2-1VegasHOU -13.5

UTAH · top performer

Brice Sensabaugh

F · #28

20.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · #10

26.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowUTAH ↔ HOU

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. MarkkanenF · #23	32	29	10-23	1-10	8-8	-14	3	2
K. FilipowskiF · #22	24	13	4-10	1-2	4-6	-24	5	4
C. WilliamsF · #5	14	2	1-3	—	—	-16	0	0
I. CollierG · #8	30	17	4-16	0-5	9-10	-30	1	3
A. BaileyG · #19	27	4	2-9	0-2	—	-26	8	0
Bench
K. LoveF · #42	24	5	2-8	1-6	—	+4	9	5
B. SensabaughF · #28	32	26	10-15	4-8	2-3	-2	3	1
S. MykhailiukG · #10	11	3	1-3	0-2	1-1	-4	0	1
J. KoncharG · #55	24	5	2-4	1-3	—	+4	4	2
V. Williams Jr.G · #0	8	1	0-4	0-4	1-2	-1	3	1
E. HarklessG · #16	14	0	0-3	0-2	—	+9	0	4
Team		105	36-98	8-44	25-30		36	23
DNP: B. Hinson, O. Tshiebwe

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	34	18	7-13	4-6	—	+28	5	12
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	33	31	12-17	6-11	1-2	+28	9	0
T. EasonF · #17	32	11	5-12	1-5	—	+7	10	4
A. SengunC · #28	36	16	7-12	0-1	2-2	+3	9	9
A. ThompsonG · #1	29	20	8-9	—	4-5	+17	7	3
Bench
J. GreenF · #32	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	+3	0	0
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	20	3	1-4	1-4	—	-5	4	0
I. CrawfordF · #27	2	0	—	—	—	+3	0	0
C. CapelaC · #30	10	2	1-3	—	—	+8	3	1
A. HolidayG · #0	6	7	2-2	1-1	2-2	+1	2	0
J. OkogieG · #20	13	2	1-4	0-2	—	+4	1	1
R. SheppardG · #15	24	15	5-9	5-9	—	+3	3	4
Team		125	49-86	18-40	9-11		53	34

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

36-98

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

49-86

FG %

8-44

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-40

25-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

9-11

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

HOU leads series 2-1

Nov 30

HOU129@

UTAH101

Dec 2

HOU125@

UTAH133

Feb 24

UTAH105@

HOU125today

Apr 4

UTAH106@

HOU140

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+57515%

HOU-85089%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -13.5↗SpreadBet HOU -13.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat UTAH 125-105. J. Smith Jr. paced them with 31 PTS, 9 REB, 0 AST. HOU outscored the other side 38-22 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST

GS 45

Bench(6)

40 PTS · 19 REB · 14 AST

GS 40

HOUstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 40 REB · 28 AST

GS 91

Bench(7)

29 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST

GS 18

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	22	25	28	30	105
HOU	38	30	32	25	125

Period scoring

UTAH won 1 · HOU won 3

Markkanen 7

Jr. 14

Markkanen 11

Sengun 8

Sensabaugh 12

Thompson 8

Sensabaugh 10

Holiday 7

UTAH

HOU

Shooting comparison

UTAH

HOU

37%

36-98

57%

49-86

18%

8-44

3PT

45%

18-40

83%

25-30

82%

9-11

Play-by-play · 470 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 105·HOU 125
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 105·HOU 125
Q4·2.7
shot clock turnover
UTAH 105·HOU 125
Q4·27.3
Aaron Holiday defensive rebound
UTAH 105·HOU 125
Q4·28.6
Ace Bailey misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
UTAH 105·HOU 125
Q4·39.6
Aaron Holiday makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
UTAH 105·HOU 125
Q4·57.9
Isaiah Collier makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 105·HOU 122
Q4·57.9
Isaiah Collier makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 104·HOU 122
Q4·57.9
Josh Okogie personal foul
UTAH 103·HOU 122
Q4·1:04
Aaron Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 103·HOU 122
Q4·1:04
Aaron Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 103·HOU 121
Q4·1:04
Kyle Filipowski shooting foul
UTAH 103·HOU 120
Q4·1:11
Kyle Filipowski personal foul
UTAH 103·HOU 120
Q4·1:19
Kyle Filipowski makes 2-foot dunk (Brice Sensabaugh assists)
·
UTAH 103·HOU 120
Q4·1:28
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
UTAH 101·HOU 120
Q4·1:28
Jeff Green misses running pullup jump shot
UTAH 101·HOU 120
Q4·1:35
Aaron Holiday defensive rebound
UTAH 101·HOU 120
Q4·1:37
Isaiah Collier misses 25-foot three point jumper
UTAH 101·HOU 120
Q4·1:44
Aaron Holiday makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot
UTAH 101·HOU 120
Q4·1:57
Kyle Filipowski makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 101·HOU 118
Q4·1:57
Isaiah Crawford enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
UTAH 100·HOU 118
Q4·1:57
Jeff Green enters the game for Jabari Smith Jr.
·
UTAH 100·HOU 118
Q4·1:57
Kyle Filipowski makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 100·HOU 118
Q4·1:57
Aaron Holiday shooting foul
UTAH 99·HOU 118
Q4·2:00
Ace Bailey defensive rebound
UTAH 99·HOU 118
Q4·2:03
Jabari Smith Jr. misses 27-foot three point jumper
UTAH 99·HOU 118
Q4·2:25
Isaiah Collier makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Kyle Filipowski assists)
·
UTAH 99·HOU 118
Q4·2:44
Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)
·
UTAH 97·HOU 118
Q4·2:55
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
UTAH 97·HOU 115
Q4·2:56
Isaiah Collier misses 24-foot three point jumper
UTAH 97·HOU 115

Betting line

HOU -13.5·O/U 228.5·UTAH +575/HOU -850

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets held off Utah Jazz, 125–105. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

HOU -13.5 cashed (won by 20). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH · F
USG%27.492
Isaiah CollierUTAH · G
DRIVES11.592

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · UTAH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs UTAH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Walker KesslerUTAH
10.7± 2.2low
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high

Assists

Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high

Blocks

Walker KesslerUTAH
1.8± 2.5low
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

HOU

53.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.7%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.4%

117.6

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR