San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 7, 2026

FINAL+3SF

12-2

ARI

7-8

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

12,815 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.9± 1.8medium
Logan WebbSF
5.5± 1.5low
Tyler MahleSF
5.2± 2.1low

Hits

Casey SchmittSF
1.4± 1.0high
Luis ArraezSF
1.2± 0.9high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.7high
Rafael DeversSF
2.2± 2.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high
Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low
Tyler MahleSF
3.1± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ARI

.725

OPS

◀

.718

.693

.308

OBP

.319

.307

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.18

4.32

Team ERA

4.17

4.31

1.36

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.29

7.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 7 · ARI 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	0	0	3	0	2	0	1	1	0	7
ARI	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OlivaCF	.421	4	3	2	0	0	1	1
W. BrennanLF	.471	3	2	2	2	0	0	1
J. RodríguezC	.313	4	0	3	2	0	0	0
V. BericotoRF	.429	3	0	0	1	0	0	2
J. SioSS	.400	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Holton1B	.304	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Harber3B	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Furman2B	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. GonzalezSS	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
S. BanduraLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. JordanOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. CartayaC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CoxCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. MeolaSS	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
G. KilenSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. AhunaSS	1.000	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		37	7	10	7	0	3	10

Player

.421

.471

.313

.429

.400

.304

.235

.188

.333

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

1.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrubakerRP	3.0	1	1	1	2	1	41
N. MargeviciusSP	3.0	3	1	1	0	2	38
M. FulmerRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	3	35
M. JohnsonP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	14
Team	9.0	7	4	4	2	7	128

Player

3.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

128

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. Vargas1B	.348	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. CrisantesSS	.429	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. MorenoC	.174	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
P. SmithDH	.304	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. FernandezDH	.280	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
A.J. VukovichCF	.130	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Luis2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. ConticelloOF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RobertsOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Serretti3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. BarrigaC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Pena2B	.286	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Walters2B	.500	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. HurleyCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. RodriguezSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AlpuriaOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	7	4	2	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. DrakeSP	2.1	5	3	3	0	2	49
H. DurkeUN	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	10
P. SewaldRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
K. StrowdRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	24
B. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
J. LoaisigaRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	14
P. AbnerRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	27
I. CampbellRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
Team	9.0	10	7	7	3	10	153

Team

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs SF.