Athletics vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 22, 2026

FINAL+1COL

ATH

13-16-1

COL

14-14-1

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

6,635 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

COL vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gage JumpATH
5.7± 2.5low
J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 2.7medium
Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.4± 1.6medium

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.4± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.4± 0.5high
Alika WilliamsATH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.5± 2.2high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.3± 4.0high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.2± 1.4high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.7high
Nick KurtzATH
0.7± 1.1high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Sean SullivanCOL
4.0± 4.5low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

COL

.736

OPS

.718

.741

.327

OBP

.319

.325

4.60

Runs / G

4.50

4.64

4.97

Team ERA

◀

4.17

5.53

1.44

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.51

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

ATH 5 · COL 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5
COL	0	0	0	2	1	0	3	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Kurtz1B	.192	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. LangeliersC	.348	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. SoderstromLF	.333	2	2	1	2	1	1	0
B. RookerDH	.348	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
J. WilsonSS	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. ButlerRF	.273	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.388	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. McNeil2B	.233	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. ClarkeCF	.077	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
C. CortesRF	.158	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. WynnsC	.270	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. HernaizSS	.381	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Riemer2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Meneses1B	.444	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
B. BuelvasOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Ibanez2B	.314	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Stefanic2B	.459	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. BlandfordOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	5	8	5	2	3	6

Player

.192

.348

.333

.348

.227

.273

.388

.233

.077

.158

.270

.381

.000

.444

.000

.314

.459

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SpringsSP	3.0	0	0	0	0	4	31
S. BarlowRP	0.2	2	2	2	3	1	32
S. EmanuelsRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	7
M. Leiter Jr.RP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	17
J.T. GinnSP	1.2	4	3	3	0	3	37
J. GonzalezRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	20
Team	8.0	8	6	6	4	12	144

Player

3.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.2

1.1

Team

8.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.333	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
W. Castro2B	.522	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
H. GoodmanC	.200	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. MoniakLF	.229	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
E. TovarSS	.261	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
J. BeckLF	.275	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. DoyleCF	.353	2	0	0	1	0	1	0
E. Julien2B	.250	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
R. Ritter2B	.352	3	1	2	1	1	0	1
B. BetancourtC	.308	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. Rumfield1B	.280	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Tucker2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. HumphreyCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. JohnstonRF	.340	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Kent2B	.167	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	6	8	6	2	4	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LorenzenSP	5.0	4	4	4	3	3	73
J. BrebbiaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
J. HillRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
Z. AgnosRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	13
T. ShookSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	8
Team	9.0	8	5	5	3	6	124

Team

ATH

COL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

COL vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

COL vs ATH.