Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 21, 2026

FINAL+5PIT

TOR

11-14-2

PIT

17-11

LECOM Park · Bradenton, Florida

6,980 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8medium

Hits

Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.4high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.1± 0.6high
Konnor GriffinPIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
2.5± 3.1medium
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.1± 2.5high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.0± 3.2high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.9± 1.4high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

PIT

.699

OPS

.718

▶

.757

.310

OBP

.319

▶

.337

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.18

4.12

Team ERA

◀

4.17

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

TOR 3 · PIT 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	3
PIT	0	0	1	2	0	3	0	2	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.294	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
N. LukesRF	.343	2	0	1	1	0	2	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.375	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. BargerRF	.263	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
A. KirkC	.130	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. VarshoCF	.413	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Okamoto3B	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Clement2B	.313	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. GimenezSS	.375	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
R. McCarty2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Mendoza3B	.389	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CunninghamOF	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. WardRF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. PlanchartC	.200	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Harry2B	.400	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
C. Doughty3B	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
R. Lantigua2B	.344	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Jimenez3B	.208	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	3	7	3	0	5	8

Player

.294

.343

.375

.263

.130

.413

.333

.313

.375

.000

.389

.250

.167

.200

.400

.000

.344

.208

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. GausmanSP	5.0	6	4	3	3	2	78
J. AlcalaRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	17
J. HahnRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	13
A. BastardoRP	0.2	1	2	2	2	2	21
J. FlemingRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
Team	8.0	9	8	7	6	6	132

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

132

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. CruzCF	.417	4	2	2	2	1	0	0
B. Lowe2B	.214	4	0	3	0	0	0	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.278	0	0	0	1	0	3	0
M. OzunaDH	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Horwitz1B	.143	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
H. DavisC	.115	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. CookRF	.263	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. GriffinSS	.171	3	1	0	0	0	0	2
A. WilliamsSS	.258	2	2	1	2	0	1	0
H. Stovall2B	1.000	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. MolaOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. GwostOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. HilsonOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. JarvisSS	.143	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. BergC	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. White Jr.CF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		29	8	9	7	2	6	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. SkenesSP	4.0	1	0	0	3	5	65
D. SantanaRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	12
I. MattsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
M. MontgomeryRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	24
D. ZeiglerRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	9
J. UrquidyRP	2.0	3	2	2	0	2	25
Team	9.0	7	3	3	5	8	149

Team

TOR

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs TOR.