Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 19, 2026

FINAL+3BAL

PIT

16-10

BAL

10-12-3

Ed Smith Stadium · Sarasota, Florida

5,734 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium

Hits

Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.4high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.1± 0.6high
Konnor GriffinPIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
2.5± 3.1medium
Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.0± 3.2high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.9± 1.4high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

BAL

.757

OPS

◀

.718

.715

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.318

5.18

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.58

4.17

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.38

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

PIT 2 · BAL 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
BAL	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TrioloSS	.265	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. O'HearnRF	.323	4	0	0	1	0	0	2
B. ReynoldsLF	.278	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
H. DavisC	.120	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. Horwitz1B	.129	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Yorke3B	.262	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Gonzales3B	.360	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. CookRF	.265	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. MangumLF	.278	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
K. GriffinSS	.184	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Caro3B	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Gray3B	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. CallihanLF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. GarciaRF	.441	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. BergC	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. WilliamsSS	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. TateOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. ScherrerC	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		36	2	9	2	0	1	13

Player

.265

.323

.278

.120

.129

.262

.360

.265

.278

.184

1.000

.250

.222

.441

.333

.250

.000

1.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SandersRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	20
G. SotoRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	17
M. ClevingerRP	2.0	1	2	2	1	4	34
H. BarcoRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	3	39
J. La SorsaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
D. DiamondSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	10
Team	8.0	7	5	5	1	10	128

Player

1.0

1.0

2.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

128

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. KjerstadLF	.195	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. TaverasCF	.219	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
S. BasalloC	.375	3	2	3	3	2	0	0
B. Ramos3B	.303	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Jackson2B	.267	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. NoelRF	.368	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
T. Estrada2B	.080	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
We. Wilson3B	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. VazquezSS	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. HodoCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. HandleyC	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Bowens1B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	5	7	5	3	1	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. RogersSP	5.1	7	2	2	0	7	82
K. AkinRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	10
R. HelsleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
G. WolframRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	21
J. KowarRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20
Team	9.0	9	2	2	1	13	148

Team

PIT

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs PIT.