Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 16, 2026

FINAL+1TOR

TOR

9-12-2

MIA

8-12-2

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

3,617 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.5± 3.3low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.3± 0.8high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.8high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.2± 2.1high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.1± 2.5high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.3high
Griffin ConineMIA
0.5± 1.2medium

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 2.9medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

MIA

.699

OPS

.718

▶

.716

.310

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.34

4.12

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.98

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 5 · MIA 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	R
TOR	1	0	4	0	0	0	5
MIA	1	1	1	0	1	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.231	2	2	2	1	1	0	0
N. LukesRF	.296	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
D. SchneiderLF	.103	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. BargerRF	.267	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. VarshoCF	.432	1	1	1	2	0	1	0
M. StrawRF	.179	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
C. StubbsC	.300	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. Tirotta3B	.233	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. NimmalaSS	.240	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezRF	.222	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. SchreckLF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Jimenez3B	.278	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. JimenezDH	.297	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. ClaseLF	.261	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Lantigua2B	.379	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. PlanchartC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Keys3B	.207	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. KasevichSS	.290	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		24	5	8	4	1	3	6

Player

.231

.296

.103

.267

.432

.179

.300

.233

.240

.222

.167

.278

.297

.261

.379

.000

.207

.290

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. EstradaRP	2.1	3	2	2	0	0	33
C. SeaboldRP	1.2	2	1	1	0	1	23
J. MantiplyRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	14
J. HahnRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	16
Team	5.2	8	4	4	0	1	86

Player

2.1

1.2

1.0

0.2

Team

5.2

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. StowersLF	.091	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
X. Edwards2B	.167	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
O. LopezSS	.400	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
L. HicksC	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Norby1B	.314	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
G. ConineLF	.212	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. RuizRF	.107	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. JohnsonCF	.222	2	1	2	2	1	0	0
B. NavarretoC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. JonesCF	.267	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JaworskySS	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Arroyo1B	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		23	4	8	4	2	0	1

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JunkSP	2.0	4	4	4	2	2	49
J. EknessRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	14
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	12
A. BenderRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	14
J. KingRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	9
Team	6.0	8	5	5	3	6	98

Team

TOR

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs TOR.