Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 16, 2026

FINAL+7DET

PHI

8-13-1

613

DET

7-11-4

Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium · Lakeland, Florida

7,664 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.4± 1.1high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
3.0± 3.2high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.7± 2.8high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.4± 4.1high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
1.0± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.0± 2.0high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.1medium
Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium
Jack FlahertyDET
2.4± 1.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

DET

.704

OPS

.718

.709

.302

OBP

.319

▶

.315

4.41

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.15

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.78

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

9.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

PHI 6 · DET 13 (by 7)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	3	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	6
DET	7	1	3	0	1	0	0	1	13

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CrawfordCF	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. Sosa2B	.368	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
O. KempLF	.211	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
D. MooreCF	.185	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. StubbsC	.250	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. De La CruzOF	.324	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
F. ReyesLF	.333	4	1	3	3	1	0	1
L. PegueroSS	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CairoSS	.240	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. FergusLF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. HerediaRF	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Farquhar2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Moore2B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MurrLF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. McIntoshC	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Vradenburg1B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Ware2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	6	8	6	2	2	5

Player

.250

.368

.211

.185

.250

.324

.333

.125

.240

.500

.167

.000

.500

.250

.273

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. KingRP	1.2	7	10	10	4	1	62
D. HarperRP	0.1	1	1	1	1	1	12
Z. PopRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
C. ShugartRP	1.1	0	1	0	2	2	32
Z. McCambleyRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	13
L. TrivinoRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	3	28
T. MayzaRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	18
Team	8.0	13	13	12	9	8	178

Player

1.2

0.1

1.0

1.1

0.2

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

178

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JonesDH	.143	4	0	2	5	0	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.200	3	2	0	0	0	1	2
R. GreeneLF	.290	4	1	3	0	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.226	3	2	2	2	1	0	0
C. Keith3B	.233	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
K. McGonigleSS	.267	3	1	1	4	1	2	0
J. RogersC	.231	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
J. Jung3B	.313	4	2	1	0	0	1	1
P. MeadowsCF	.189	3	2	2	0	0	2	1
W. PerezRF	.167	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
C. JulksLF	.360	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. SlaterRF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. ValenciaC	.348	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. CruzCF	.242	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. GrahamSS	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. NidoC	.227	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. Gil2B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
R. CamposOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	13	13	13	2	9	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FlahertySP	5.0	5	5	5	1	3	71
B. HanifeeRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	15
T. RaineyRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	14
B. HurterRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
J. LittleRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	18
Team	9.0	8	6	6	2	5	127

Team

PHI

DET

—

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs PHI.