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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3CHC
CHC

CHC

10-13

5
2
CLE

CLE

11-12-1

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona
8,008 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CLE win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

CHC

league avg

CLE

CLE

.736

OPS

◀

.718

.676

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.312

4.89

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.93

4.21

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.77

1.25

WHIP

1.31

1.26

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 5 · CLE 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC1300100005
CLE1000000012

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 66-33
62%Last 30 · 293-178
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Mar 16·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-0
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1S. KingeryCHC+21.0pp
  2. 2G. WilliamsCLE−19.7pp
  3. 3A. HedgesCLE−15.7pp

CHC · top performer

CHC
Matt Shaw

Matt Shaw

RF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
J

Juan Benjamin

3B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

Game flowCHC ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 2nd Inning

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final

Batters

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ShawRF
.3613121000
M. AmayaC
.2503011002
D. CarlsonLF
.3553110001
C. Bethancourt1B
.2504010002
K. AlcantaraDH
.2963011010
B.J. Murray Jr.3B
.2963110002
J. RojasSS
.2204000002
S. Kingery3B
.1844112103
B. BatemanCF
.4442110000
- J. Long1B
.3002000001
- K. KepleyOF
.2501000000
- M. BallesterosDH
.3211000000
- J. DelgadoLF
.2500000000
- C. TriceC
.0001000001
- H. Cantrelle2B
.2500000000
- K. Simas3B
.2001000001
Team355951115

Pitchers

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HortonSP
5.031111072
C. ReaSP
4.02112458
Team9.0522314130

Batters

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. HalpinCF
.2863000002
A. MartinezLF
.3553110001
K. Manzardo1B
.1324001003
A. HedgesC
.2612010011
C. KayfusLF
.2003010001
N. JonesRF
.1253000001
J. Brito2B
.1673000003
C. Kieboom3B
.1253000002
M. TolentinoSS
.2113010000
- T. Bazzana2B
.2860000010
- J. LampeCF
.2731000000
- D. NunezC
.3000000010
- Ant. Martinez1B
.0001000000
- R. CesariniOF
.1111000000
- J. FoxCF
.0001000000
- J. Benjamin3B
.2861111100
- D. Fernandez2B
.0001000000
Team332521314

Pitchers

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. WilliamsSP
4.27551785
C. BrogdonRP
1.12000324
P. PalletteRP
2.00000324
T. HerrinRP
1.00000212
Team9.0955115145

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

5

5

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

5

Runs

2

9

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

14

TB

11

1

HR

1

1

BB

3

15

K

14

8

LOB

14

Season series

CHC win series 2-0

Feb 27CLECLE6@CHCCHC8
Mar 17CHCCHC5@CLECLE2today

How it ended

CHC beat CLE 5-2. M. Shaw led the way — 2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS. Kingery's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CLE vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+7pp→ 63% WP

Amaya · singled to left, Shaw scored.

CLEBottom 1st Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 51% WP

A. Martinez · tripled to right.

CHCTop 2nd Inning · 3-1
+20pp→ 67% WP

Kingery · homered to center (410 feet), Murray Jr. scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC1300100005
CLE1000000012

Period scoring

CHC won 2 · CLE won 1

1
1

Inn 1

Amaya 1

Manzardo 1

3
0

Inn 2

Kingery 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Alc 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Benjamin 1

CHC
CLE

Play-by-play · 560 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 5·CLE 2

  2. B9

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 2

  3. B9

    Fernandez grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 2

  6. B9

    Colin Rea pitches to Dauri Fernandez

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 2

  7. B9

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 2

  8. B9

    Benjamin homered to right.

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  12. B9

    Colin Rea pitches to Juan Benjamin

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 2

  13. B9

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  14. B9

    Fox grounded out to first.

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  19. B9

    Colin Rea pitches to Jacob Fox

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  20. B9

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  21. B9

    Cesarini grounded out to second.

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

    −1pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  24. B9

    Colin Rea pitches to Ryan Cesarini

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  27. T9

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  28. T9

    Long grounded out to second.

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

  30. T9

    Tim Herrin pitches to Jonathon Long

    ·

    CHC 5·CLE 1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 5–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Player projections

CLE vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    6.6± 2.4medium
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.2± 2.4medium
  • Matthew BoydCHC
    5.8± 3.1low

Hits

  • Nico HoernerCHC
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Seiya SuzukiCHC
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Dansby SwansonCHC
    2.1± 2.9high
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Seiya SuzukiCHC
    2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Dansby SwansonCHC
    1.2± 2.5high
  • Justin DeanCHC
    1.0± 2.3low
  • Seiya SuzukiCHC
    0.9± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jordan WicksCHC
    3.7± 5.5low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    3.3± 3.2medium
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.8± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Mize (DET): 7.0 IP · 10 K in a win over NYY — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Young (SEA): 3 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over LAA
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Placed RF Matt Shaw on the 10-day IL (Jun 29)
LAST NIGHT · MLBZ. Matthews (MIN): 7.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER in a win over HOU
LAST NIGHT · MLBB. Marsh (PHI): 2 H · 2 HR · 2 RBI against PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBOrioles: Placed LHP Keegan Akin on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 28 (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · MLBAthletics: Placed LF Tyler Soderstrom on the 10-day IL, retroactive to June 28 (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · NBASpurs: Re-signed F Julian Champagnie to a veteran extension (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · NBANets: Signed G Chaney Johnson to a two-way contract (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · WNBADream: Signed G Jaylyn Sherrod to a player development contract (Jun 29)
TONIGHT · WNBALV @ NY, 6/30 - 7:00 PM EDT — NY -6.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Mize (DET): 7.0 IP · 10 K in a win over NYY — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Young (SEA): 3 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over LAA
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Placed RF Matt Shaw on the 10-day IL (Jun 29)
LAST NIGHT · MLBZ. Matthews (MIN): 7.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER in a win over HOU
LAST NIGHT · MLBB. Marsh (PHI): 2 H · 2 HR · 2 RBI against PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBOrioles: Placed LHP Keegan Akin on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 28 (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · MLBAthletics: Placed LF Tyler Soderstrom on the 10-day IL, retroactive to June 28 (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · NBASpurs: Re-signed F Julian Champagnie to a veteran extension (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · NBANets: Signed G Chaney Johnson to a two-way contract (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · WNBADream: Signed G Jaylyn Sherrod to a player development contract (Jun 29)
TONIGHT · WNBALV @ NY, 6/30 - 7:00 PM EDT — NY -6.5