Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 15, 2026

FINAL+5TB

PIT

15-7

8-13-1

Charlotte Sports Park · Port Charlotte, Florida

5,744 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 103 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
2.5± 3.1medium
Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.0± 3.2high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.9± 1.4high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.7± 2.8low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.4± 1.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

.757

OPS

◀

.718

.730

.337

OBP

.319

.336

5.18

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.52

4.17

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.78

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.20

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

PIT 1 · TB 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
TB	0	0	3	0	2	0	1	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TrioloSS	.258	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. O'HearnRF	.360	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.259	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.150	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Yorke3B	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BartC	.107	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. Horwitz1B	.136	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. CookRF	.259	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. GriffinSS	.212	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
T. CallihanLF	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. GarciaRF	.517	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. FletcherRF	.258	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. RossC	.417	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
En. Valdez1B	.077	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. RodriguezC	.308	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. WilliamsSS	.292	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. TateOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	4	1	1	3	14

Player

.258

.360

.259

.150

.273

.107

.136

.259

.212

.182

.517

.258

.417

.077

.308

.292

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. UrquidyRP	3.2	6	3	3	1	4	61
N. TakacsRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
Y. RamirezRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	16
T. YulieSP	0.1	0	0	0	3	1	19
J. DeeseSP	1.2	2	1	1	1	1	17
J. ShirkRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	8.0	11	6	6	5	8	125

Player

3.2

0.1

1.0

0.1

1.2

1.0

Team

8.0

125

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.375	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
G. LuxLF	.167	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. Aranda1B	.389	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. FraleyRF	.444	3	2	3	1	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.333	4	1	3	4	1	0	0
C. SimpsonLF	.316	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. WallsSS	.294	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
H. FeducciaC	.087	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. Palacios2B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. VellojinC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. BarriosSS	.360	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Morgan1B	.063	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. DeLucaRF	.280	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. MeltonLF	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. OlivaresRF	.042	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. WilliamsSS	.364	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. LevinsC	.083	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Taylor3B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	6	11	5	1	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. McClanahanSP	3.2	0	0	0	2	7	55
I. SeymourRP	2.1	0	0	0	0	1	24
C. BooserRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
T. MartinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
L. GuerreroRP	1.0	3	1	1	1	3	27
Team	9.0	4	1	1	3	14	130

Team

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs PIT.