Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 15, 2026

FINAL+3SEA

CIN

12-10

SEA

6-16-1

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

9,223 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium

Hits

Julio RodriguezSEA
1.1± 0.7high
Edwin ArroyoCIN
1.0± 1.3high
Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Sal StewartCIN
1.8± 1.8high
Cole YoungSEA
1.8± 2.8high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
1.5± 2.1high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.5± 1.0high
Spencer SteerCIN
0.5± 1.1high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
2.9± 3.0low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 2.0medium
Rhett LowderCIN
2.8± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

SEA

.699

OPS

.718

.696

.310

OBP

.319

.312

4.25

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.05

4.59

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.70

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

CIN 3 · SEA 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3
SEA	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. McLain2B	.553	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
S. SteerLF	.176	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. De La CruzSS	.294	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Stewart1B	.355	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
T. StephensonC	.154	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
N. MarteRF	.263	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. HindsRF	.364	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Hayes3B	.231	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. DunnCF	.136	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. PitelliSS	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Johnson2B	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. Hampson2B	.069	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
P.J. HigginsC	.208	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
W. BanfieldC	.278	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. HendrickRF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. VuLF	.333	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. Sanchez3B	.444	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Y. ConfidanLF	.500	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		37	3	11	3	1	4	10

Player

.553

.176

.294

.355

.154

.263

.364

.231

.136

.167

.250

.069

.208

.278

.500

.333

.444

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. WilliamsonSP	4.0	2	0	0	1	4	63
P. JohnsonRP	0.1	3	5	5	2	0	27
T. FarrSP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	10
B. BurkeRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	27
C. PhillipsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	18
A. MisiewiczRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
Team	8.0	8	6	6	5	9	162

Player

4.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

162

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Donovan3B	.452	4	1	4	3	0	0	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.250	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
L. RaleyRF	.219	4	1	1	2	0	0	0
R. RefsnyderDH	.200	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. Young2B	.268	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. GarverC	.125	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
L. Rivas3B	.233	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Taylor1B	.313	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. FarmeloOF	.214	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. DorighiSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. WashingtonCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. DurschlagOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PeredaC	.105	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Pagliarini3B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. ReetzC	.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Rodden2B	.393	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
L. Suisbel1B	.273	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. ThomasLF	.441	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		32	6	8	6	0	5	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. KirbySP	4.2	7	2	2	1	4	67
P. Alford1B	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
A. MunozRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	19
M. BrashRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	17
S. RaethRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	10
A. HoppeRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	18
C. BeilensonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	20
Team	9.0	11	3	3	4	10	156

Team

CIN

SEA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs CIN.