Texas Rangers vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 14, 2026

FINAL+1CIN

TEX

13-9

CIN

12-9

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

4,034 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium

Hits

Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high
Josh JungTEX
1.1± 1.0high
Nicky LopezTEX
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.3high
Sal StewartCIN
1.8± 1.8high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high
Jake BurgerTEX
0.9± 1.1high
Corey SeagerTEX
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
2.9± 3.0low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 2.0medium
Rhett LowderCIN
2.8± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

CIN

.712

OPS

◀

.718

.699

.320

OBP

◀

.319

.310

4.07

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.25

3.95

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.59

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

TEX 3 · CIN 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	3
CIN	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.160	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
A. OsunaLF	.316	4	0	3	0	0	1	0
J. Burger1B	.333	2	0	0	1	0	1	1
M. CanhaLF	.300	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. Wade2B	.462	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. HelmanCF	.154	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. CauleySS	.289	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. Bride3B	.226	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. HerreraC	.296	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. Lee SangCF	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. CuevaSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Perich3B	.333	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
Q. ScottRF	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Pollard2B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SniderLF	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BrockC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	3	9	2	0	6	9

Player

.160

.316

.333

.300

.462

.154

.289

.226

.296

.111

.000

.333

.125

.250

.250

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. GomberSP	4.1	3	1	1	2	2	73
T. AlexanderRP	3.1	5	3	3	1	2	51
J. BrandRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	7
Team	8.0	9	4	4	3	4	131

Player

A. GomberSP

4.1

T. AlexanderRP

3.1

J. BrandRP

0.1

Team

8.0

131

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.273	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. BensonRF	.276	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. TrevinoC	.320	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
N. LoweDH	.241	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. BledayLF	.294	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. HindsRF	.367	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
P.J. HigginsC	.217	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Chavis2B	.231	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. BalcazarSS	.308	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. NevilleOF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. AlcantaraSS	.500	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. JorgeCF	.273	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
M. Toglia1B	.300	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
C. HunterC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. AllenCF	.167	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Collier3B	.125	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
H. RodriguezLF	.118	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. PitelliSS	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	9	4	2	3	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LowderSP	3.1	4	2	1	4	4	76
P. HurneyRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	17
E. PaganRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
T. SantillanRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	22
S. MollRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
T. AntoneRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	8
D. McCaughanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	9	3	2	6	9	156

Team

TEX

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs TEX.