Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 13, 2026

FINAL+1BOS

6-13-1

BOS

9-10

JetBlue Park at Fenway South · Fort Myers, Florida

8,639 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 2.9medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Anthony SeiglerBOS
1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.0± 1.5high
Yandy DiazTB
2.0± 1.1high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.8± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium
Jake BennettBOS
2.0± 2.3low
Nick MartinezTB
2.0± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

BOS

.730

OPS

◀

.718

.698

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.312

4.52

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.02

3.78

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.69

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.24

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

TB 6 · BOS 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	2	0	0	0	4	0	0	6
BOS	0	0	1	0	3	2	1	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.385	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
C. MullinsCF	.235	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. DeLucaRF	.250	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
H. FeducciaC	.095	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. WallsSS	.333	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Williamson2B	.370	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. ViladeRF	.235	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Palacios2B	.188	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. SimpsonLF	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. LevinsC	.091	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. OvernOF	.273	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
B. GuerreroOF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. SabolC	.222	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
C. WilliamsSS	.381	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. Delgado2B	.160	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Morgan1B	.063	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. BarriosSS	.375	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. DiazCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	6	9	6	1	6	8

Player

.385

.235

.250

.095

.333

.370

.235

.188

.375

.091

.273

.500

.222

.381

.160

.063

.375

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RasmussenSP	4.0	6	1	1	2	4	71
C. CitelliP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. MartinRP	0.2	3	3	3	0	1	16
B. BakerRP	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	21
C. BooserRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	14
H. SnelsireRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	19
Team	8.0	14	7	7	4	9	144

Player

4.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Durbin3B	.370	4	1	3	1	0	0	1
M. Mayer2B	.273	2	1	2	1	0	2	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.423	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.350	3	1	1	3	1	0	1
A. MonasterioSS	.308	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
N. EatonOF	.471	3	1	3	0	0	0	0
T. ChengSS	.100	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
K. Campbell2B	.206	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
B. WardCF	.382	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. CastroCF	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. McDonoughOF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Ferguson2B	.238	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Capra3B	.095	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. DelayC	.273	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
A. OpataOF	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Sogard3B	.094	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. RomeroSS	.278	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	7	14	7	2	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OviedoSP	3.1	3	2	2	3	5	64
T. SamaniegoRP	1.2	0	0	0	2	1	23
Z. KellyRP	1.2	3	3	3	1	1	34
S. MartinezRP	1.1	3	1	1	0	1	22
T. GuerreroRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	9	6	6	6	8	152

Team

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs TB.